Western Australia’s Boomtown Future: Will Housing Keep Pace with Population Growth?
Western Australia is bracing for significant population growth, with forecasts predicting 4 million residents by 2043. A latest report from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC) highlights both the opportunity and the potential roadblocks, particularly a looming housing crisis. The state’s population recently surpassed 3 million at the complete of 2024, and is expected to grow by a further one million in the next 17 years.
The Housing Supply Challenge
The core concern isn’t the influx of people itself, but WA’s ability to provide enough homes. Professor Alan Duncan, director of the BCEC, emphasizes that migration isn’t the cause of the problem, but rather a symptom of a longer-term undersupply. “The cause is that we’ve undersupplied housing for quite some time,” he stated. Current housing completion rates are falling short of the National Accord’s target of 24,000-25,000 new properties annually. WA is only just exceeding 22,000 completions, a level last consistently reached in 2017.
This shortfall isn’t just a matter of numbers. it impacts the state’s economic potential. Without sufficient housing, the projected growth could be stifled, hindering the benefits of a resource-driven boom.
The Interplay of Mining and Migration
The BCEC’s new modelling reveals a strong connection between population growth, iron ore prices, and mining investment. A 10 per cent increase in the iron ore price correlates with approximately 283 additional interstate migrants arriving in WA every three months. This demonstrates the interconnectedness of the mining sector with broader economic and demographic trends.
Interestingly, the report shows that Queensland is contributing a significant number of migrants to WA, comparable to the numbers coming from more populous states like Victoria and New South Wales. “Queensland really punches above its weight relative to its population,” Professor Duncan noted.
Competition with Queensland and the 2032 Olympics
The competition for skilled labor is expected to intensify as Queensland prepares to host the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. The demand for construction and engineering workers in Queensland could potentially reverse the current flow of workers towards WA. Professor Duncan warns, “We need to be heads up and forward thinking in how we can secure a sufficient workforce, particularly in construction to keep pace with what we need.”
Regional vs. Metropolitan Growth
Currently, the Greater Perth area is home to 80.6 per cent of WA’s population, with only 19 per cent residing in regional areas. The metropolitan area experienced a growth rate of 2.4 per cent in the past year, double that of regional WA. This disparity highlights the need for strategic planning to ensure balanced growth across the state.
FAQ: WA Population Growth and Housing
Q: What is the projected population of Western Australia in 2043?
A: 4 million people.
Q: What is the current housing completion rate in WA?
A: Approximately 22,000 new properties per year, falling short of the 24,000-25,000 target.
Q: Is migration the primary cause of the housing shortage?
A: No, the report indicates the primary cause is a long-term undersupply of housing.
Q: What is the link between iron ore prices and population growth in WA?
A: A 10% increase in iron ore prices correlates with approximately 283 additional interstate migrants every three months.
Q: How does the 2032 Brisbane Olympics impact WA?
A: It is expected to increase competition for skilled labour, potentially reversing the flow of workers from Queensland to WA.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about WA’s economic and population trends by regularly checking reports from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
What are your thoughts on WA’s future? Share your comments below and let’s discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead!
