President Donald Trump said Wednesday that oil prices surging due to the ongoing war with Iran likely will not drop until after the U.S. midterm elections. According to the Associated Press, international Brent crude jumped more than 3% on Wednesday to surpass the $100 threshold for the first time since July as military escalations between the U.S. and Iran intensified.
Oil Prices Surge Past $100 Amid Escalating Conflict
Energy markets climbed following military engagements in the region. According to the Associated Press, the U.S. military reported striking five Iranian tankers in response to attempted missile attacks on a Navy warship. Additional pressure came when attacks by an Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group ignited fires at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, as reported by the Associated Press.
U.S. benchmark crude stood at around $96 a barrel on Wednesday. Meanwhile, AAA figures cited by the Associated Press show the national average price for a regular gallon of gasoline ticked up 7 cents overnight to hit $4.22—more than a dollar higher than the cost at the same point last year. Diesel prices reached an all-time high on Friday and continued climbing, rising 9 cents overnight to $5.94 a gallon. Jet fuel costs have forced U.S. and international carriers to cut flights while raising fares and fees.
Trump Predicts Relief After November 3 Midterm Elections
Speaking to reporters before traveling to Dallas for the midterm Republican convention, President Trump said that market relief is tied to the political calendar. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said, adding, “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”
Trump expressed a belief that Iran will relent following the pivotal U.S. vote. “I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” Trump said, according to the Associated Press. He further alleged that Iranian leadership desires Republican losses to install a weaker administration that would leave them alone and allow them to pursue a nuclear weapon.
At the start of the conflict, which is now in its seventh month, the president predicted it would last only a matter of weeks, according to the Associated Press. The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has severely slowed Gulf oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that handled roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum prior to the war.
Administration Stance and Strategic Reserves
The president’s timeline follows comments from Vice President JD Vance, who steered clear of setting artificial timelines for the conflict’s conclusion, telling reporters that ending the war depends on when the Iranians stop shooting at ships. The administration has tapped its strategic petroleum reserves, which fell below 300 million barrels in early August—a drop of more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026.
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