Recent political and security developments in Yemen, particularly in the south, highlight the fragility of stability in the country, according to UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg. He warned that without a comprehensive and inclusive political process, Yemen risks falling back into cycles of conflict. “Absent a comprehensive approach that addresses Yemen’s many challenges in an integrated manner, rather than in isolation, the risk of recurrent and destabilising cycles will remain,” Mr. Grundberg said.
Tensions in the South
While a recent de-escalation in military activity has been observed, the security situation in southern Yemen remains precarious. In December, forces linked to the Southern Transitional Council attempted to expand their control in Hadramout and Al Mahra. Government forces, supported by Saudi Arabia, responded in January by moving to regain control of key infrastructure.
Mr. Grundberg emphasized that the future of southern Yemen cannot be decided by a single group or through the use of force, and urged dialogue among Yemeni leaders. He welcomed a proposal from President Rashad al-Alimi to initiate talks with a broad range of southern leaders, viewing it as a potential step toward a nationwide political process under UN guidance.
Instability and the Economy
Political uncertainty is having a significant impact on Yemen’s economy, with rising prices, unpaid salaries, and failing services eroding the ability of households to cope. Mr. Grundberg cautioned that even brief periods of instability “can trigger currency pressure, widen fiscal gaps, and stall reform efforts.”
Weak institutions and inconsistent salary payments, particularly for public sector employees, are exacerbating the economic strain. Mr. Grundberg called on Yemeni authorities to protect economic institutions – including the Central Bank – from political interference, warning that a loss of confidence could further destabilize the country.
Severe Humanitarian Crisis
The humanitarian situation in Yemen is deteriorating, with rising needs and restricted access for aid organizations due to funding shortages, according to Ramesh Rajasingham, Director of the Humanitarian Sector for the UN aid coordination office (OCHA). More than 18 million Yemenis – half the population – are facing acute food insecurity, and tens of thousands are at risk of famine-like conditions.
The country’s health system is on the verge of collapse, with over 450 facilities already closed and thousands more facing potential funding cuts. Vaccination programs are threatened, and only two-thirds of Yemeni children are fully immunized, largely due to limited access in the north. This leaves millions vulnerable to preventable diseases like measles, diphtheria, cholera, and polio.
Humanitarian operations are also hampered by the detention of 73 UN staff members by Houthi authorities, restricting aid delivery to areas where approximately 70 percent of the population in need reside. Despite these challenges, aid organizations continue to provide assistance where possible, having reached 3.4 million people with food aid in late 2023 and responding to floods and disease outbreaks. However, these gains remain fragile.
Red Sea Security
Earlier on Wednesday, the UN Security Council voted to extend for six months the monthly reporting requirement on attacks by the Houthi armed group against commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The resolution passed with 13 votes in favor, with Russia and China abstaining. This mandate, established in January 2024, requires the UN Secretary-General to provide regular updates on maritime security incidents and their impact.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current security situation in southern Yemen?
The security situation in southern Yemen remains fragile following rival deployments by forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council and government-aligned forces backed by Saudi Arabia. While a recent de-escalation has been achieved, the situation remains unstable.
How is the economic situation impacting Yemenis?
Political uncertainty is driving up prices, causing unpaid salaries, and leading to the failure of essential services, eroding the resilience of Yemeni households. Even short periods of instability can have significant negative economic consequences.
What is being done to address the humanitarian crisis?
Despite significant challenges, including funding shortfalls and the detention of UN staff, aid organizations continue to provide assistance to millions of Yemenis. However, the crisis is worsening, with a growing number of people facing acute food insecurity and a collapsing health system.
Given the interconnected challenges facing Yemen, what steps might be necessary to move toward a more stable and sustainable future for the country?
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