US Intelligence Predicted Israel’s Gaza Strategy Would Lead to Iran Strikes

According to reports from The New Yorker, Biden administration officials predicted that Israel would intentionally expand the war in Gaza to strike Iran and Lebanon, despite repeated warnings from Washington to avoid regional escalation. Former officials revealed that former president Joe Biden believed any intense U.S. pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would ultimately provoke larger Iranian attacks, forcing American military intervention.

Assessing the Regional Strategy and Intelligence Failures

Throughout 2024, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resisted U.S. pressure while launching targeted military actions against Iranian infrastructure and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-backed proxies, including Hezbollah. According to former White House coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk, the administration pursued immovable support for Israel to help contain Iran. However, Netanyahu repeatedly blindsided U.S. officials by executing major operations without advance notification.

For instance, the Israeli government provided no prior warning to the Biden administration before carrying out the September 2024 beeper attack against Hezbollah operatives. Furthermore, former officials noted that the assassination of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—occurring just two days after the U.S. called for a temporary ceasefire—served as a direct humiliation for the White House.

The Moral Hazard of Unconditional Defense

Despite mounting frustrations, the Biden administration refrained from public criticism. The U.S. military actively defended Israel against Iranian strikes in April and October 2024. Philip Gordon, former national-security adviser to then-vice-president Kamala Harris, told The New Yorker that Washington trapped itself in a “moral hazard” by providing unconditional protection that emboldened Netanyahu.

“We could advise them very firmly, and Biden did that with Bibi repeatedly: ‘Goddammit, take the win and don’t drag us into a further war.’ But the Israelis knew we were going to defend them,” Gordon stated to The New Yorker.

Transition to the Trump Administration and Continued Conflict

As the Biden term drew to a close, departing officials warned the incoming Donald Trump administration that Israel would aggressively pursue military opportunities against Iran. Within the first half of Trump’s term, the U.S. engaged twice in conflict with Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained to reporters in March that American intelligence indicated imminent Israeli strikes would inevitably trigger Iranian retaliation against U.S. forces in the region.

“We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that they would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties,” Rubio told reporters.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Biden administration try to stop Israel from expanding the war?

Yes. According to former officials, President Biden repeatedly urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to accept military victories without escalating the conflict, though Israel continued to launch unannounced strikes.

Why did the U.S. defend Israel against Iranian missile strikes?

The U.S. provided military defense during the April and October 2024 Iranian attacks.

What did U.S. intelligence believe regarding Iran’s response?

U.S. intelligence agencies initially believed that Iran would delegate actual combat to regional proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and that former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was risk-averse due to his age.