AfD Nears Power in German State Election

Saxony-Anhalt Exit Poll Results and Coalition Stalemates

Projections from Sunday’s exit poll show the governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) plummeting to 18.5 percent of the vote, down sharply from 37.1 percent in the 2021 state election, according to regional broadcaster MDR. CDU lead candidate Sven Schulze called the result a defeat in an interview with the German broadcaster ZDF. Schulze described the campaign as extremely tough and intense, telling MDR that he has no intention of cooperating with the AfD.

According to Bild, the AfD is projected to win 40 of the 83 seats in the state parliament, falling short of an absolute majority. However, the final math for forming a government depends heavily on smaller parties. If several smaller parties fall below the 5 percent electoral threshold, the AfD could secure a majority of the remaining seats, according to reporting based on the exit polls.

Economic Hardships and Industrial Decline in Eastern Germany

Voter turnout surged to 76.5 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, compared to 60.3 percent during the previous election in 2021, according to Ostdeutsche Allgemeine. Once the heart of East German industry, Saxony-Anhalt saw widespread privatizations and closures following German reunification.

Unemployment in the state stood at 8.1 percent in July, compared to 6.4 percent nationwide, according to NTB. The state of 2.1 million residents maintains the second-highest poverty rate in the country, with every fifth resident living on less than 60 percent of the median income. Brewery worker Steven, working at a local factory facing downsizing, told NRK that the region’s historic rubber industry has vanished along with its jobs, leaving residents looking for political alternatives like the AfD.

Demographic Pressures and the Political Rise of the AfD

Saxony-Anhalt is among Germany’s oldest and fastest-shrinking states due to historically low birth rates and outward migration, according to NTB. IT entrepreneur Christian Allner told NRK that the state has lost every fourth resident since reunification 30 years ago, as educated workers moved westward. Meanwhile, the AfD has campaigned on remigration, mass deportations of immigrants, and stripping Ukrainian refugees of their protected status.

Historian and author Astrid Sverresdotter Dypvik noted that the AfD’s popularity in East Germany stems from the legacy of the GDR and post-reunification disappointments. While the AfD led pre-election polls with over 40 percent support, federal parties continue to enforce a strict “firewall” policy refusing cooperation. Dypvik noted that regional authorities lack control over immigration policy, but pointed out that the party’s rhetoric could worsen severe skilled labor shortages in sectors like healthcare, where many foreign-born workers are currently employed.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the exit polls show for the Saxony-Anhalt state election?

Exit polls showed the AfD leading with 44.5 percent of the vote, followed by the CDU with 18.5 percent, the Left Party with 9.5 percent, and the Greens with 9 percent, according to MDR.

Can the AfD form a government alone?

Projections indicate the AfD will win 40 of 83 seats, falling just short of a clear majority, though performance variations among smaller parties relative to the 5 percent threshold could ultimately affect seat distribution, according to Bild.

How has the federal government responded to the AfD?

Established political parties maintain a strict “firewall” policy refusing any coalition agreements or political cooperation with the AfD, despite the party securing 151 seats in the federal Bundestag during the February 2025 federal election.

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