A dramatic weekend has expanded the AFL top-four race into a seven-team contest, according to Foxfooty.com.au projections. While Fremantle and Sydney remain the favorites for the top two spots, Melbourne’s recent upset over Hawthorn has placed Adelaide and Geelong at risk of falling into the wildcard bracket.
Why is the AFL top-four race expanding?
The race for the top four has shifted following recent results that have tightened the margins between several contenders. Foxfooty.com.au projections currently place Fremantle (19 projected wins) and the Sydney Swans (17.7 projected wins) as the clear leaders for the top two positions.
However, the battle for the remaining two spots involves four other clubs. Hawthorn is projected to finish third with 15.7 wins, while the Brisbane Lions are positioned fourth with 15.1 projected wins. The Lions have gained momentum after two wins against major contenders, making them a strong candidate to challenge the Hawks for a higher seed.
A potential blockbuster between Fremantle and Sydney this Thursday night could decide the minor premiership. If the Dockers win, they are expected to finish on top; if they lose, the title may come down to percentage.
The AFL’s first 10-team finals series includes a “wildcard” system. While the top six teams receive a bye, teams ranked 7th through 10th must compete in wildcard finals to progress to the elimination finals.
How does the wildcard scenario affect Geelong and Adelaide?
Melbourne’s victory over Hawthorn has significantly altered the landscape for clubs sitting in the middle of the ladder. According to Foxfooty.com.au, the Demons have catapulted themselves into the fight for a double chance, which creates immediate pressure for Adelaide and Geelong.
The margin between the teams currently occupying the 5th through 7th spots is exceptionally slim. The projected win totals are as follows:
- Adelaide Crows: 14.3 wins
- Geelong: 14.15 wins
- Melbourne: 14.1 wins
This narrow gap means the ordering of these teams could change frequently over the remaining seven rounds. For Geelong, a recent stretch where they lost four of their last five games has impacted both their ladder position and their premiership outlook. Foxfooty.com.au notes that if Geelong loses their upcoming match against Melbourne in Round 20, they face a genuine risk of dropping into the wildcard spots.
Adelaide faces similar volatility. Despite a recent win over West Coast, the Crows are projected to finish 5th but face difficult away games against Sydney and Fremantle, alongside home matches against Collingwood and GWS.
Who is fighting for the final top-ten spots?
The race for the final two spots in the 10-team finals series has become a four-team battle between GWS, Collingwood, Carlton, and St Kilda. GWS has re-entered the conversation following an upset victory over Fremantle, keeping them in contention for a finals berth.
The projected win totals for these chasing clubs are closely grouped:
- Collingwood: 11.55 wins
- Carlton: 11.3 wins
- St Kilda: 11 wins
- GWS Giants: 10.9 wins
For Carlton, the path to the finals relies heavily on upcoming matches against direct ladder opponents. Foxfooty.com.au suggests that if the Blues win three of their next four games against Collingwood, Gold Coast, and St Kilda, they are highly likely to secure a spot.
When win totals are nearly identical—as seen with the Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Carlton—percentage becomes the deciding factor. A team might be “equidistant” in wins but effectively several games behind due to a lower scoring margin.
Which clubs face the toughest remaining schedules?
Fixture difficulty plays a major role in these projections. Foxfooty.com.au calculates difficulty based on the average percentage of remaining opponents.
Essendon faces the hardest remaining fixture of all 18 clubs. In contrast, Hawthorn holds the easiest draw, which may help them maintain their third-place projection despite recent losses. Brisbane also benefits from the 3rd-easiest remaining schedule, which supports their push for a top-four finish.
Port Adelaide faces a difficult path ahead, ranked as having the 2nd-hardest remaining fixture. This makes their position in the race complex, as continued wins could inadvertently push them into a finals race that list management may not desire.
Projected Final Ladder Summary
| Rank | Club | Projected Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle | 19 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans | 17.7 |
| 3 | Hawthorn | 15.7 |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions | 15.1 |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows | 14.3 |
| 6 | Geelong | 14.15 |
| 7 | Melbourne | 14.1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an AFL wildcard final?
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends. They involve the teams ranked 7th through 10th, while the top six teams receive a bye.
Who is projected to win the minor premiership?
Fremantle is currently projected to finish 1st with 19 wins, closely followed by the Sydney Swans.
How many teams make the finals?
Under the new format, 10 teams qualify for the finals series.
Who do you think will secure the final spot in the top ten? Let us know your predictions in the comments below!
