The Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) has issued a stark warning, stating that national security is currently under pressure from more directions and for a longer duration than at any other point in the service’s 80-year history. Director-General Simone Smit described the current threat landscape as unprecedented, specifically highlighting Russia’s posture toward Europe as an “uncomfortably fact.”
Russia’s Long-Term Confrontation
According to the AIVD, Russia is actively preparing for a protracted confrontation with the West. The service reports that Russian actions toward European countries became more aggressive, provocative, and brutal last year, driven by a view that European political and military support for Ukraine is increasingly “hostile.”
This hostility has manifested in significant cyber operations. In 2025, Russian hackers targeted the Signal and WhatsApp accounts of military personnel and government officials. A Russian-linked espionage group dubbed “Laundry Bear” targeted the police, stealing work-related contact details—including names, phone numbers, and emails—from tens of thousands of employees.
China’s Strategic Ambitions
The AIVD also highlighted a deepening and broadening threat from China, which seeks to reshape the global order according to its own “autocratic ideology.” The service reports that China has spent years illegally and secretly attempting to acquire knowledge from Dutch companies and knowledge institutions.
These activities threaten the innovation, earning capacity, and autonomy of Dutch businesses. A specific example from 2025 includes a cyberspionage campaign by the state-supported group “Salt Typhoon,” which targeted Dutch telecom providers.
Domestic Extremism and Terrorism
Jihadism remains the primary threat to national security, characterized by a persistent terrorist threat largely driven by the Islamic State. The AIVD has observed an increase in followers under the age of 24, with many radicalizing online. Of eleven individuals arrested last year for jihadist threats of violence, six were under 24.
The service also monitors right-wing extremism, identifying a broad non-violent movement and a smaller, violent faction. While left-wing extremists focused heavily on the war in Gaza in 2025, the AIVD classifies them as “activist” and considers the threat from this group to be low.
Further concern exists regarding “sovereigns,” or anti-institutional extremists who believe a “malicious elite” is using mass migration to oppress the population. This group frequently threatens judges and journalists. In one operation, police arrested eight such extremists, seizing firearms, ammunition, heavy fireworks, and castor beans—the primary ingredient for the poison ricin.
Global Alliances and State Actors
The AIVD reports that foreign governments and intelligence services are increasingly utilizing criminal individuals and networks for espionage, with some of these networks structurally active within the Netherlands.
Parallel findings from the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) indicate that Russia and China are rapidly learning from the war in Ukraine. Military cooperation between the two nations has intensified, and China is reportedly preparing for armed conflicts, evidenced by its claims over Taiwan and frequent large-scale military exercises around the island.
Future Implications
Given the current trajectory, it is likely that the West could face continued and evolving cyberattacks targeting government communication channels. The intensified military cooperation between Russia and China may lead to a more coordinated challenge to Western security interests.
Domestically, the trend of youth radicalization suggests that security services may demand to increase their focus on online monitoring to prevent violent outcomes. The use of criminal networks by state actors could make identifying the true origin of espionage activities increasingly difficult.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is currently the greatest threat to Dutch national security?
According to the AIVD, jihadism remains the biggest threat, with a persistent terrorist threat primarily attributed to the Islamic State.
Who is “Laundry Bear” and what did they do?
Laundry Bear is a Russian-linked espionage group that carried out targeted cyberattacks against Western governments and defense organizations, including a hack of the Dutch police that stole the contact details of tens of thousands of employees.
How is China attempting to influence the Netherlands?
China is illegally seeking to acquire knowledge from Dutch companies and institutions to further its goal of reshaping the world order according to its autocrat ideology, and it has targeted telecom providers via the “Salt Typhoon” hacking group.
How should democratic societies balance the need for national security with the protection of digital privacy in an era of state-sponsored cyber warfare?
