The Surge of North American LNG and Global Energy Security
The landscape of global energy is shifting rapidly, with North America positioning itself as the primary stabilizer for international natural gas markets. Recent data indicates that LNG export capacity in North America is on track to more than double, growing from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) at the start of 2024 to an estimated 28.7 Bcf/d by 2029.
The United States is the primary engine of this growth. Already the world’s largest exporter with 15.4 Bcf/d of capacity, the U.S. Plans to add approximately 13.9 Bcf/d, pushing its total capacity toward nearly 30 Bcf/d. This expansion is heavily concentrated around the U.S. Gulf Coast, the largest LNG export hub in the Atlantic Basin.
While the U.S. Leads the charge, Canada and Mexico are also expanding, with announced plans to add 2.5 Bcf/d and 0.6 Bcf/d of capacity, respectively. Even though, the path to full production is not without hurdles; pipeline construction delays remain a significant supply risk for latest terminals.
Real-World Impact: The Golden Pass Milestone
The strategic importance of this capacity was highlighted by the recent operations of Golden Pass LNG, the 10th LNG terminal in the United States. After achieving first production in March 2026, the terminal shipped its first cargo from Train 1 on April 22, 2026.
This shipment arrived at a critical juncture. Geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have affected over 10 Bcf/d—approximately 20% of the global LNG supply. As the only new U.S. Terminal expected to begin shipments in 2026, Golden Pass LNG serves as a vital alternative to volatile transit chokepoints.
Navigating Oil Market Volatility and Strategic Reserves
The interdependence of global energy is most evident during supply shocks. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant spike in crude oil and petroleum product prices in the first quarter of 2026, following military actions in the Middle East on February 28.
To mitigate these disruptions, the United States and other International Energy Agency (IEA) members agreed to a coordinated emergency release of strategic oil stocks in March 2026. These reserves, established in the 1970s, remain the primary tool for OECD countries to stabilize markets during crises.
Despite these tensions, U.S. Domestic production has reached new heights. In 2025, U.S. Crude oil production hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day (b/d). The Lower 48 states (excluding the Gulf of Mexico) contributed 11.3 million b/d, or 83% of the total.
The Evolution of Power Generation and Fuel Efficiency
The transition of the U.S. Electric power sector is showing unexpected trends. While the move away from coal continues, the pace has slowed. In 2025, the sector retired only 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity—the lowest level since 2010. Several planned retirements were either delayed or cancelled entirely, with some facilities slated for 2026 now remaining operational until 2029.
Simultaneously, other energy sources are gaining ground:
- Hydropower: Generation is expected to reach 259 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026, representing 6% of total U.S. Electricity generation.
- Rooftop Solar: In Puerto Rico, rooftop solar capacity reached 1,456 megawatts (MW) by the end of 2025, making it the second-largest capacity source on the island, surpassing natural gas.
The Shift in Gasoline Consumption
Consumer behavior and technology are also reshaping energy demand. Annual motor gasoline consumption in the U.S. Decreased in 2025 to an average of 8.9 million barrels per day. Interestingly, this decline occurred even as vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased, proving that rising fuel efficiency is successfully decoupling mileage from fuel consumption.
To further manage costs at the pump, the EPA has moved to relax federal enforcement of summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) standards, allowing for gasoline formulations that help reduce prices for consumers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected LNG capacity for North America by 2029?
North American LNG export capacity is on track to increase to 28.7 Bcf/d by 2029, up from 11.4 Bcf/d at the start of 2024.
How much of the global LNG supply transits the Strait of Hormuz?
Approximately 20% of the global supply, or over 10 Bcf/d, transits the Strait of Hormuz.
Why did U.S. Gasoline consumption drop in 2025 despite more driving?
The decrease was driven by increasing fuel efficiency in vehicles, which allowed for more miles traveled with less fuel consumption.
What is the current state of U.S. Crude oil production?
The U.S. Set a new annual production record in 2025, reaching 13.6 million barrels per day.
Desire to stay ahead of the energy curve? Share your thoughts on the shift toward North American LNG in the comments below, or explore our latest analysis of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) to see where markets are heading next.
