The U.S. government released a 10-year operating framework on Friday, that could force deep cuts to Colorado River water supplies for Arizona, California, and Nevada.
The federal government has unveiled its long-awaited plan for managing the drought-stricken Colorado River through 2036, setting up potential clashes between federal regulators, state officials, and local water users. Under the proposal issued by the Interior Department, the three lower basin states could face reductions of up to 3.2 million acre-feet of water annually—roughly 40 percent of their collective total.
While the 10-year framework establishes broad rules to operate Lake Powell and Lake Mead, it stops short of setting fixed, decades-long allocations. Instead, the Bureau of Reclamation will issue operating plans every two years. This flexible approach aims to manage severe drought and chronic overuse across a river system that supplies 40 million people.
Immediate Relief for the Southwest Averted Harshest Cuts
Although the 10-year framework permits steep water reductions, state and local officials indicate that the initial operating plan for 2027 and 2028 will likely adopt a proposal put forward by California, Arizona, and Nevada this spring.
For the next two years, the administration is accepting the lower basin’s offer rather than imposing the maximum 3.2 million acre-feet annual reduction immediately. Under this near-term agreement, California is projected to cut its use by about 12 percent, Nevada by 28 percent, and Arizona by approximately 31 percent. Meanwhile, the four upper basin states—Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico—are not facing mandatory water cuts under the upcoming two-year plan.
Arizona Faces Disproportionate Burden and Political Friction
Arizona is poised to absorb the most severe impact under the federal operating schedule. Under century-old river compact rules, junior water rights holders face cuts first, placing Arizona at the front of the line for reductions.
“contains unacceptable options that include the federal government forcing Arizona to take the majority of draconian water cutbacks.”
Katie Hobbs, Arizona Governor
Governor Katie Hobbs urged the administration to fully embrace the downstream states’ proposal rather than defaulting to federal mandates.
Legal Challenges and Future Uncertainty Loom Over the Basin
While the Department of the Interior frames its two-year incremental approach as a necessary mechanism to respond to changing hydrologic conditions, critics warn the open-ended structure guarantees prolonged instability.
“All this does is kick the can down the road yet again, in search of an agreement between the states that has failed to materialize for more than 3 years.”
Noah Garrison, water policy researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles
As the Interior Department prepares to issue a final record of decision, stakeholders across the West are readying legal challenges.
“I think there’s a good chance that there will be legal challenges.”
Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University
Managers of the Central Arizona Project have asserted that the federal plan contains fundamental legal flaws and inaccurately portrays Arizona’s water rights. With the current operating rules expiring at the end of September 2026, the region faces mounting pressure to balance human consumption, agricultural irrigation for 5 million acres, and shrinking reservoir levels before litigation further destabilizes water management across the West.
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