Exit polls released on Wednesday indicate a likely victory for the BJP-led alliance in Assam and a shift in power in Kerala, where the UDF is projected to unseat the LDF. The AINRC-BJP combine is also expected to retain control in Puducherry. However, predictions diverge regarding the outcomes in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
Tamil Nadu: A Tight Race?
Axis My India’s exit poll suggests a closely contested race in Tamil Nadu between the Vijay-led TVK, projected to win 98-120 seats, and the DMK alliance, forecast to secure 92-110 seats. This projection positions the TVK ahead of the AIADMK-led NDA, which is expected to perform poorly in the 234-member House. Other polls, however, still predict a majority for the DMK-led coalition, albeit a reduced one.
West Bengal: Diverging Projections
Predictions for West Bengal are varied. While Axis My India did not release its findings on Wednesday, P Marq’s poll projects a potential majority win for the BJP in the 294-member assembly. Matrize also gives the BJP an advantage, though not a guaranteed majority. In contrast, People’s Pulse forecasts a decisive victory for the TMC, potentially securing a fourth consecutive term for Mamata Banerjee.
Assam and Kerala: Clearer Signals
The NDA is expected to win a two-thirds majority in the 126-member Assam assembly, marking the first time the BJP will achieve a majority on its own in the state. The Congress-led alliance is projected to win between 24 and 40 seats. In Kerala, the UDF is widely expected to win, with projections ranging from 70 to 90 seats out of 140. This outcome could mean the Left will not hold office in any state for the first time since 1977.
Official results are scheduled to be announced on Monday, May 4.
Frequently Asked Questions
What states are covered in these exit polls?
The exit polls cover Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal.
What is the projected range of seats for the UDF in Kerala?
The UDF is projected to win between 70 and 90 seats in the 140-member Kerala assembly.
What is the potential significance of the Assam election results?
The NDA is likely to win a two-thirds majority in Assam, which would mean the BJP wins a majority on its own in the state for the first time.
How will these projections influence the political landscape in India as we await the official results?