Flu Outstrips COVID in California: A Shift in Public Health Focus
For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, more people in California are dying from the flu than from COVID-19 this winter. This shift marks a significant change in the landscape of respiratory illnesses, with influenza reestablishing itself as a major health concern.
A Return to Annual Patterns
Before the pandemic, the flu was the most impactful epidemic infectious disease in the developed world due to its annual fluctuations in mortality rates. Dr. John Swartzberg of UC Berkeley notes, “Prior to COVID, influenza was the only epidemic infectious disease in the developed world that every year significantly changes the mortality rates.”
In the early years of COVID-19, heightened precautions like mask-wearing, social distancing, and avoiding crowds largely suppressed flu outbreaks, which typically claim 10,000 to 50,000 lives annually in the U.S. However, as precautions eased with the advent of COVID-19 vaccines and the virus became less deadly, the flu’s return to its pre-pandemic pattern has become more pronounced this winter.
Rising Trends and Alarming Data
The percentage of deaths attributed to the flu in California reached 2% in early January, a steep increase from the peak of just under 1.5% in previous winters. Since July 1, there have been at least 561 confirmed influenza deaths, predominantly among those over 65. Dr. Swartzberg predicts, “This may become the worst influenza season we’ve had so far in the 21st century.”
The resurgence is partly attributed to lower flu vaccination rates since the pandemic, particularly among children. CDC data reveals that only 45% of children ages 6 months to 17 had received flu vaccinations by the end of January 2025, down from 58% pre-pandemic.
Broader Impacts and Further Complications
The impact of the flu resurgence isn’t isolated to California. School closures have been implemented in more than ten U.S. states due to elevated influenza activity. Nationally, 57 pediatric flu deaths have been reported so far this season, indicating a widespread issue.
While COVID-19 deaths remain relatively low, with just over 1% of death certificates mentioning the virus in the last week of January, the focus must shift to combat the rising tide of the flu. Public health officials stress that simple precautions can make a significant difference.
“If your goal is to avoid illness, you should go back to taking the same precautions you used against getting COVID,” suggests Dr. Swartzberg, who has resumed indoor mask-wearing.
Staying Safe and Informed
Did you know? It’s not too late to get vaccinated against the flu, even if you missed it earlier this year. Influenza vaccines remain available and are crucial in preventing severe outcomes.
For more information on flu prevention, visit California’s official influenza vaccine page.
FAQs
Why is the flu now more lethal than COVID-19 in California?
Flu vaccination rates have dropped since the pandemic, and public health measures have relaxed, allowing influenza cases to rise sharply.
What precautions can I take to avoid the flu?
Wear masks indoors during flu season, practice good hygiene, and get vaccinated. Consider maintaining physical distancing in crowded places.
Is it too late to get the flu vaccine?
No. Flu season can extend into the spring, and vaccinations are available, providing essential protection.
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