According to recent polls, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party holds a commanding lead of 40% to 43% ahead of regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, placing them roughly twenty points ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives at 22% to 24%.
AfD Surges in Saxony-Anhalt Amid Economic Discontent
The anti-migrant, russophile party has capitalized on negative experiences and feelings among many residents since reunification, including unemployment and economic degradation, according to Nathalie Le Bouëdec, a professor of German history and civilization at Université Bourgogne-Europe, in an interview with BFM. Le Bouëdec notes that former East Germans often harbor a sense of non-recognition, feeling that West Germans never truly acknowledged their history. Unlike West Germany, the memory of Nazism was treated differently in the former GDR, leading many in the East to perceive the AfD as a party like any other.
Did you know? Saxony-Anhalt is a small state of just 2,1 millions d’habitants that has experienced significant population decline and aging as younger generations left following reunification.
Ulrich Siegmund and the Appeal of Ostalgie
Ulrich Siegmund, a smiling thirty-something with 500,000 Instagram followers, leads the AfD ticket in the region. A former member of Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s conservative party and a former fragrance company owner, Siegmund joined the AfD in 2014. At his campaign stops, supporters frequently display the former East German communist flag and lean into “Ostalgie”—a nostalgia for the GDR. Siegmund himself has campaigned while riding a Simson moped, a recognized symbol of East German identity.
https://x.com/UlrichSiegmund/status/2054604087681822799
A Radical Program Meets Firm Opposition from Berlin
Siegmund’s platform includes plans to expel irregular foreigners from Saxony-Anhalt immediately upon taking office, following his attendance at a 2023 secret meeting in Potsdam that discussed mass “remigration.” He also pledges to ban the official display of the LGBT+ rainbow flag in schools while ensuring the national flag flies daily, remove mandatory school attendance to pave the way for homeschooling, and alter history school curriculums away from focus on Third Reich guilt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned of considerable economic damage from a potential AfD victory, stating he cannot imagine international investors wanting to inaugurate new factories alongside an AfD minister-president.
Navigating Majority Hurdles and the Cordon Sanitaire
Securing a majority is not guaranteed for the AfD under Germany’s proportional representation system, where single-party rule is rare. The party’s path to power depends heavily on whether smaller parties, such as the Liberals or the pro-Russian leftist BSW party, cross the 5% threshold to enter the regional parliament. Because mainstream parties maintain a cordon sanitaire refusing to govern with the AfD—with the exception of some ambiguities from the BSW—incumbent conservative Sven Schulze could potentially lead a minority government, similar to how a minority configuration was managed in neighboring Thuringia in 2024, according to Nathalie Le Bouëdec.
Pro Tip for Readers
Watch how regional vote shares shift near the 5% threshold on election night, as minor party exclusions significantly alter the math required for an absolute majority in German state parliaments.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will an AfD win automatically place them in power in Saxony-Anhalt?
Not necessarily. Winning the election requires either an absolute majority or a viable coalition. Due to the “cordon sanitaire” enforced by traditional parties, forming a ruling coalition with the AfD remains improbable, though minority government options exist.
Who is running against the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt?
Sven Schulze, a 47-year-old conservative engineer and former eurodeputy who took charge of the state in March after serving as economy minister, represents the CDU.
Why is the AfD particularly popular in eastern Germany?
According to Nathalie Le Bouëdec, the party capitalizes on post-reunification economic struggles, feelings of displacement, and differing historical handlings of Nazi memory compared to the former West Germany.
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