In 1921 French Marshal Ferdinand Foch warned that “the next world war is inevitable” if the Allies ignored Germany’s re‑armament after the Treaty of Versailles. His prediction proved accurate when Germany rebuilt its forces in the 1930s, sparking World War II, and today a renewed German defence surge is prompting fresh debate across Europe.
Germany’s defence surge reaches a new milestone
Berlin’s 2022 “Zeitenwende” pledge to become a European defence leader is now bearing fruit. By 2025 Germany spent more on defence than any other European nation, placing its military budget fourth worldwide, just behind Russia. Annual spending is projected to hit $189 billion in 2029 – more than three times the 2022 level – and the government is even weighing a return to mandatory conscription if voluntary recruitment falls short. If these trends continue, Germany could re‑emerge as a great military power before 2030.
Why the buildup matters now
European leaders who once feared a powerful Germany now worry about its perceived weakness. Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said in 2011, “I fear German power less than German inaction,” while NATO secretary‑general Mark Rutte urged in 2024 that Germany’s military “spend more and produce more.” Yet France and Poland are uneasy about Berlin’s growing might, fearing it could rekindle old rivalries and prompt a scramble for counter‑balancing coalitions.
Potential flashpoints
If German dominance goes unchecked, France may seek to reassert itself as the continent’s leading military power, invoking the “grande nation” ambition. Poland could deepen ties with Baltic and Nordic states or the United Kingdom’s Joint Expeditionary Force to balance Berlin’s strength. Such moves risk diverting attention from the Russian threat and could leave Europe fragmented and vulnerable.
Political risks on the horizon
The far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is rising in the polls and has a history of Eurosceptic, revanchist rhetoric. Should the AfD gain federal power, it could push for a more autonomous German defence industry and use military strength to pressure neighbours, echoing the concerns voiced by Margaret Thatcher in 1989. Scenarios include the AfD influencing coalition formation, demanding a withdrawal from NATO commitments, or even reshaping the EU into an illiberal “Europe of Nations.”
Paths forward for a balanced Europe
Historical German leaders have accepted “golden handcuffs” – surrendering aspects of sovereignty for deeper integration. Today, Berlin could champion large‑scale joint European borrowing for defence, similar to the eurobonds issued during the COVID‑19 crisis, and cooperate on multinational procurement to create a true European defence industry. Strengthening European command structures and multinational formations would bind German capabilities to collective decision‑making, reducing the risk of a unilateral German hegemony.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the “Zeitenwende” policy?
“Zeitenwende,” introduced in 2022, is Germany’s strategic commitment to become a leading defence power in Europe, involving substantial increases in military spending and capabilities.
How much is Germany expected to spend on defence by 2029?
Annual defence spending is projected to reach $189 billion in 2029, which is more than three times the amount spent in 2022.
What are the concerns about the Alternative for Germany (AfD)?
The AfD is a far‑right, nationalist party that opposes the EU and NATO, has made revanchist claims on neighbouring territories, and could, if it gains power, use Germany’s military strength to bully or coerce other countries.
How should Europe balance Germany’s growing military capacity with the need for collective security?
