Global sea surface temperatures reached record highs this July, surpassing the previous 2023 record. Driven by climate change and a strengthening El Niño, the heat has fueled marine heatwaves across the Atlantic and Mediterranean, compounding extreme land-based heatwaves that have triggered wildfires and energy disruptions across Western Europe.
Record Ocean Heat and the Influence of El Niño
The world’s oceans experienced their hottest July on record, with average surface temperatures outside of polar regions hitting 20.96°C (69.73°F). This figure eclipses the previous July record of 20.89°C (69.60°F) set in 2023, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Scientists attribute this sustained thermal stress to the dual impact of human-driven climate change and the rapid development of a powerful El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
While El Niño is a natural climate cycle, its current intensity is significant. Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, noted that the developing El Niño is likely the primary driver behind the record-breaking sea temperatures. Experts warn that because oceans absorb approximately 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, the current warming trend is fundamentally altering the Earth’s climate system.
“We are now facing a very large El Nino – possibly unprecedented in terms of amplitude. It is clear that the contribution coming from the tropical Pacific becomes quite important.”
Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Western Europe’s Persistent Summer Heat
Western Europe has endured its hottest June-July period on record, with an average temperature of 21.62°C (70.92°F). This surpasses the previous benchmark set in 2022. The region has been gripped by a series of intense heatwaves and exceptionally low rainfall, which has led to significant soil moisture deficits. Samantha Burgess, a climate scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, explained that the heat and drought conditions are reinforcing one another.
“As persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe, the extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily.”
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The impact on infrastructure has been immediate. In July, water supply shortages and rising river temperatures forced utility companies to shut down coal-fired power plants in Poland and Hungary’s sole nuclear facility. Agricultural losses are also mounting, with early estimates suggesting the June heat cost grain farmers €2bn.
Compounding Risks and Economic Consequences
The combination of marine heatwaves and land-based extremes is creating long-term economic and environmental instability.
Beyond the economic toll, the human cost is substantial. National authorities reported more than 10,000 excess deaths associated with the June heatwaves across countries including France, Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands. Experts emphasize that the frequency of these extreme events is tied directly to the warming of the planet.
Projections for the Remainder of 2026
As the El Niño event progresses, scientists anticipate that the coming months may bring further records. While July 2026 was tied with July 2024 as the joint second-warmest July on record globally, the ongoing thermal stress suggests that the remainder of the year will remain volatile.
The focus for many governments has shifted toward the need for systemic adaptation.
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