A strengthening super El Niño is accelerating faster than experts have ever recorded, driving extreme global temperatures, intensifying Canadian wildfires, and reshaping weather patterns across North America through early 2027, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Global average sea surface temperatures reached 20.86 degrees Celsius in June, surpassing prior records set in 2023 and 2024 as ocean and atmospheric circulation systems couple strongly across the Pacific.
Record-Breaking Wildfires and Heat Domes Fuel Canadian Droughts
Northern Ontario forests have burned through more than 7,250 square kilometers, according to provincial numbers released on July 21, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. Across British Columbia, about 110 active wildfires continue to burn with 48 considered out of control, forcing more than 30 evacuation orders, state the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre and provincial officials.
Global News meteorologist Anthony Farnell notes that El Niño has elevated temperatures by one to two degrees, increasing evaporation and drying out forests. This follows intense heat domes across Canada in early July. “We’re going to be seeing this probably linger into September,” Farnell says, pointing to the strengthening weather pattern.
Did you know? A super El Niño requires tropical Pacific ocean temperatures to rise more than two degrees Celsius above the long-term average, occurring approximately every two to seven years.
Suppressed Atlantic Hurricanes Contrast With Active Pacific Storms
The Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet with only one tropical storm recorded as of July 19. Farnell attributes this directly to El Niño, explaining that stronger wind shear in the troposphere tears developing thunderstorms apart before they can organize. “The wind shear doesn’t allow for these hurricanes to develop,” he says.
Conversely, the eastern Pacific is experiencing an active hurricane season. University of Toronto atmospheric physics professor Kent Moore explains that hurricanes draw energy from warm sea surface temperatures through evaporating water. “When you have really warm sea surface temperatures you can get enhanced hurricanes,” Moore states.
Warmer Winters and Reduced Snowpack Threaten Next Year’s Forests
With the peak of El Niño expected in December, Canada’s upcoming fall and winter will likely bring warmer, rainier, and milder conditions, according to Moore. “Snow is a way to save all that winter precipitation and allow it to have an effect come next spring, but if it’s raining during the winter, then that effect is minimized,” Moore notes.
Farnell projects a warmer and drier winter across much of Canada, which risks worsening droughts in British Columbia and Alberta and leaving the country vulnerable to another active wildfire season. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall events are packing more punch due to higher atmospheric water vapor, evidenced by St. Catharines, Ontario declaring a state of emergency on August 4 following significant flooding.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is causing the current super El Niño to accelerate so quickly?
According to Global News meteorologist Anthony Farnell and EU Copernicus Marine Service data, rapidly rising global sea surface temperatures—hitting 20.86 degrees Celsius in June—have combined with a strong coupling of Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation to accelerate the current event.
How does El Niño affect Canadian wildfire seasons?
El Niño raises regional temperatures by one to two degrees Celsius, according to Anthony Farnell, which increases evaporation rates, dries out the boreal forest, and creates drought conditions that fuel wildfires.
Will the Atlantic hurricane season stay quiet for the rest of the year?
Meteorologists expect the Atlantic season to remain subdued through August and September because El Niño generates strong wind shear in the troposphere, which disrupts tropical storm formation.
What kind of winter weather can Canadians expect this year?
According to University of Toronto professor Kent Moore, the peak of El Niño in December will likely yield a warmer, rainier winter with reduced snowfall across the country.
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