Global fertility rates have fallen below the 2.1 “replacement rate” necessary to prevent population decline, with over two-thirds of nations now facing below-replacement levels. Analysts, including journalist John Burn-Murdoch and social scientist Alice Evans, suggest that the mass adoption of smartphones and the rise of AI companions are accelerating this trend by displacing in-person socialization and romantic partnership formation.
Why are global fertility rates collapsing?
The global fertility rate dropped below 2.1 in 2023, marking a significant shift in demographic trends. While structural factors like healthcare advancements, increased education, and shifting gender roles have influenced fertility for decades, the current decline is marked by a “relationship recession.” According to a 2025 study published in Nature, the decline in high-income countries is driven primarily by a sharp decrease in the share of women having any children at all, rather than a change in the number of children born to mothers who do have them.
“The digital revolution has played a signal role in both degrading socialization for young adults and dividing young adults from one another,” says Brad Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies.
How do smartphones fuel the relationship recession?
The “smartphone theory” posits that the mass adoption of mobile devices during the 2010s reduced the incentive for in-person social interaction. As digital entertainment—ranging from streaming services to social media—became ubiquitous, the necessity for physical gatherings diminished. Data from 21 European nations shows that the share of people meeting friends daily fell from 21 percent in 2006 to 12 percent in 2022. Economists from the University of Cincinnati observed that as localities gained access to 4G networks, adolescent birth rates and conceptions accelerated their decline, suggesting that moving social life online reduces the opportunities for romantic connections to form.
Will AI companions replace human intimacy?
The arrival of AI chatbots like Claude and ChatGPT has introduced a new layer of digital isolation. A 2025 study from OpenAI and MIT, which tracked 981 participants over four weeks, found that those who spent more time engaging with AI chatbots became more socially isolated by the end of the trial. Furthermore, a 2025 poll from Brigham Young University’s Wheatley Institute revealed that 19 percent of American adults—and 31 percent of young men—reported chatting with an AI system designed to simulate a romantic partner. Among those in committed relationships, 15 percent reported having a secret AI romantic relationship.
The impact on relationship stability
Research co-author Brian Willoughby notes that AI companions often provide constant validation and centering of the user’s concerns, which can make real-life partners—who possess their own perspectives—seem less appealing. Survey data indicates that users of AI companions are more likely to report unstable relationships, often questioning the future of their partnerships. Some industry figures, such as Daniel Faggella of Emerj Artificial Intelligence Research, suggest that future advancements in haptics and AI could make human intercourse an increasingly rare activity.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is technology the primary cause of falling fertility rates?
No. According to experts like University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, the fertility decline is rooted in long-term structural forces, including secularization and economic shifts. However, digital technology is viewed as a catalyst that accelerates these trends by altering social behaviors.
What does the “replacement rate” mean?
The replacement rate is the average number of births per woman—currently 2.1—required to maintain a stable population size without migration.
Are AI chatbots actually causing social isolation?
Evidence from the 2025 OpenAI and MIT study suggests a link, as participants who used AI intensively showed higher levels of social isolation compared to those who did not, even when starting with similar social activity levels.
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