Four Years of War: How Ukraine Changed Russia – and What Comes Next
Nearly four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has surpassed the length of its involvement in World War II. With Russian combat deaths exceeding 186,000 – a staggering 13 times the losses sustained during the decade-long Soviet-Afghan War – the human cost is immense. But beyond the battlefield, how has this protracted war reshaped Russia itself?
Life Continues, But Differently
While major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg have largely remained untouched, areas bordering Ukraine, such as the Kursk and Belgorod regions, have experienced artillery barrages, drone strikes and even temporary Ukrainian control. Locals have adapted, often continuing daily life even amidst frequent attacks. At least 458 civilians have been killed in Ukrainian attacks on the Belgorod region since the war began, according to local news site Fonar.tv.
Economic realities are shifting. Inflation is a major concern for Muscovites, with even small purchases costing upwards of 1,000 roubles ($13). Despite this, purchasing power hasn’t drastically declined, and consumer activity remains visible. Access to Western brands has become problematic, though some South Korean brands, like LG, are reappearing. Chinese brands are available, but are often considered lower quality than their German or Polish counterparts.
The Tightening Grip of Control
The Kremlin has responded to the conflict by enacting strict laws against “fake news” about the invasion, blocking social media platforms like Instagram and Facebook, and restricting access to messaging apps like WhatsApp and Telegram. State-backed alternatives, such as RuTube and Max, are being promoted. This censorship is viewed by some citizens as a violation of personal freedom and a source of growing resentment towards the state.
Shifting Opinions and the Weight of Propaganda
Despite laws criminalizing dissent, opinion polls suggest widespread public support for the war, though the accuracy of these polls is questioned. The Russian military is attracting recruits through generous pay, rather than relying on conscripts. Initial skepticism about the war’s justification has, for some, given way to acceptance, fueled by state-controlled narratives and personal connections to the conflict.
One man, whose brother enlisted as a drone pilot, initially questioned the war but now believes “Zelenskyy and his entire fascist fraternity must be destroyed.” Another resident, while initially critical, has grown jaded with the West and now believes pursuing “victory” is the only option.
The Exodus and Return of Russians
In the first year of the war, an estimated two million Russians left the country, fearing conscription or opposing the war. Many have since returned, facing difficulties integrating into host countries or due to rising anti-immigrant sentiment. One activist, now in Berlin, expressed disillusionment with the West and suggested a compromise might be necessary, even if it means a defeat for Ukraine.
Voices from the Front Lines and the Decision to Desert
For some, direct experience with the war’s brutality has led to a change of heart. Alexander Medvedev, a veteran who was mobilized into the elite Ural Battalion, witnessed the devastation firsthand and questioned the war’s purpose. He ultimately deserted and sought help from the organization Get Lost to escape abroad, expressing a longing to return to a peaceful Russia.
The Future Landscape
The war in Ukraine has exposed vulnerabilities within Russia, but likewise a remarkable degree of resilience and adaptation. The long-term consequences are still unfolding, but several trends are becoming apparent.
Increased State Control and Isolation
The Kremlin is likely to further tighten its grip on information and dissent, increasing censorship and suppressing opposition voices. Russia may become increasingly isolated from the West, deepening its reliance on countries like China. This could lead to a more authoritarian political system and a further erosion of civil liberties.
Economic Restructuring and Dependence
The Russian economy will continue to restructure, shifting away from Western markets and towards alternative partners. However, this transition will likely be uneven, with some sectors struggling to adapt. Dependence on China could increase, potentially leading to economic vulnerabilities.
A Divided Society
The war has exacerbated existing divisions within Russian society. Those who support the war and those who oppose it are increasingly polarized, making reconciliation difficult. The exodus of skilled workers and professionals could further weaken the country’s human capital.
The Potential for Internal Instability
While widespread unrest is unlikely in the short term, the combination of economic hardship, political repression, and growing social divisions could create conditions for internal instability in the long run. The potential for elite infighting and regional separatism cannot be ruled out.
FAQ
Q: How many Russian soldiers have died in the Ukraine war?
A: Verified Russian combat deaths have topped 186,000 as of February 2026.
Q: Has the war affected everyday life in Moscow?
A: While Moscow hasn’t experienced direct attacks, inflation has significantly increased the cost of living.
Q: Is there censorship in Russia regarding the war?
A: Yes, the Kremlin has enacted strict laws against “fake news” and blocked access to many Western social media platforms.
Q: Are Russians leaving the country because of the war?
A: Approximately two million Russians left the country in the first year of the war, though many have since returned.
Did you know? The war in Ukraine has lasted longer than Russia’s entire involvement in World War II.
Pro Tip: Stay informed about the evolving situation in Ukraine by consulting reputable news sources and independent analysis.
What are your thoughts on the future of Russia? Share your perspective in the comments below. Explore more in-depth analysis on our International Affairs section or subscribe to our newsletter for regular updates.
