Iran has signaled to its Houthi allies in Yemen that they should prepare to block the Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. This directive creates a potential dual-chokepoint crisis, as the Strait of Hormuz is already effectively closed following the collapse of a June truce between Tehran and Washington.
The Strategic Threat to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
The Bab el-Mandeb strait, a narrow gateway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is the primary alternative for oil shipments when the Strait of Hormuz is inaccessible. Two senior Iranian sources and one regional source confirmed to Reuters that Tehran has communicated this contingency to the Houthis. A source close to the Houthi movement stated that the group has already positioned drones and missiles in the Yemeni highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the strait, awaiting an order to initiate operations.
The involvement of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is central to this escalation. Representatives of the IRGC are currently embedded in Yemen and are expected to hold the authority to trigger the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb route. This coordination marks a shift in regional dynamics, as Riyadh-based sources noted that the kingdom is monitoring the increased synchronization between Iran and the Yemeni group.
Did you know?
Before the current conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried approximately 20% of global oil and gas shipments. The simultaneous disruption of both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait would effectively isolate the Middle East’s primary maritime export channels.
Escalation of Military Strikes and Regional Infrastructure
The threat follows a week of direct military engagement. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. would target Iranian power plants and bridges if negotiations did not resume. Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia, an Iranian army spokesperson, responded by stating that such an attack would lead to a broader, more destructive retaliatory strike against infrastructure across the entire region.
The conflict has expanded beyond the initial theater. Iran reported targeting the Al Azraq Air Base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, while the Revolutionary Guards claimed to have destroyed satellite communications and radar at the Ali Al Salem Air Base and a U.S. military pier in Kuwait. Meanwhile, the Bahraini defense ministry reported intercepting Iranian aerial attacks on Thursday. This follows a five-night campaign of U.S. strikes aimed at forcing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and degrading Iranian military capabilities.
Market and Security Implications
Torbjorn Solvedt, a principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted that the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia—which recently saw missile fire exchanged following accusations of bombing an airport—complicates the security environment. “If fighting intensifies and spills over into Red Sea export infrastructure and shipping, it will threaten the only major alternative route for oil exports from the region,” Solvedt said.
The volatility is further fueled by the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding. Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf described the current situation as an “existential war,” while the military maintains that the only path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is for the U.S. to adhere to the previously signed terms and accept “Iranian regulations” for maritime traffic.
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why is the Bab el-Mandeb strait significant? It is the strategic gateway to the Red Sea. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it serves as the primary alternate route for global energy exports.
- Who is coordinating the potential Red Sea closure? According to sources close to the Houthis, representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) currently in Yemen will decide when to block the strait.
- What has been the U.S. objective in recent strikes? U.S. officials state the strikes aim to force open the Strait of Hormuz and destroy Iranian military infrastructure that could be used for more complex operations.
- How has Iran responded to U.S. military pressure? Iran has threatened to strike regional infrastructure and has targeted U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Jordan, labeling the conflict an “existential war.”
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