Headline: World’s Largest Oil Terminals Threatened by Rising Seas; A Paradox of Their Own Making
Subhead: Transition to Renewable Energy Urgent to Avoid Disaster
In a irony-laden twist, the world’s most vital oil shipping hubs, which have fuelled global economies and lifestyles, are now under threat from the very crisis they have helped spawn – climate change. According to a new study cited by The Guardian, rising sea levels, largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels, could submerged many of these crucial petroleum terminals.
Thirteen of the world’s busiest oil ports are at serious risk even with a modest one-meter rise in sea levels, the analysis finds. Two low-lying Saudi Arabian ports, Ras Tanura and Yanbu, both managed by Saudi Aramco and responsible for 98% of the kingdom’s oil exports, top the list of at-risk facilities. Also included are Houston and Galveston in the U.S., the world’s largest oil producer, as well as terminals in the UAE, China, Singapore, and the Netherlands.
The latest scientific data from the International Initiative for the Cryosphere (ICCI) indicates that a one-meter sea-level rise is nearly inevitable within a century, possibly by 2070, if ice sheets continue to melt unchecked. An even more catastrophic three-meter rise is probable in the next millennium or two, with signs appearing as early as the 21st century’s dawn.
The sea-level rise is already causing problems worldwide, even before it swamps coastal developments. Current rises are causing higher storm surges and increased likelihood of coastal flooding, while saltwater intrusion can corrode infrastructure. Swiftly reducing emissions could not only slow down the pace of sea-level rise but also limit its ultimate rise.
Pam Pearson, ICCI’s director, noted, "It’s paradoxical that these oil tanker terminals are just one meter above the current sea level and are facing potential sea-level rise impacts from continued fossil fuel use."
Rising Seas Redraw Global Map
Sea-level rise is the most serious long-term consequence of the climate crisis, redrawing the global map and threatening many major cities from New York to Shanghai. However, Pearson believes that short-term interests of governments and corporations are blocking effective action. "The main message [of sea-level rise projections] doesn’t seem to have sunk in with governments," she said.
James Kirkham, ICCI’s chief scientific advisor, warned, "Keeping the oil taps open means keeping the taps open on sea-level rise." He noted that accelerated ice melt and ocean expansion have already doubled the rate of sea-level rise over the last three decades. Without ambitious action to phase out fossil fuels, the dire consequences of sea-level rise will only worsen, impacting every coastal nation, including those obstructing global climate action efforts.
Saudi Arabia has been accused of blocking progress in recent global climate summits, including the climate assembly in Glasgow (COP26), and negotiations on plastics and desertification. Recent talks in Riyadh ended without agreement, with Saudi Arabia refusing to include any climate references in the deal.
The new analysis builds on May’s research, which found that 12 of the 15 busiest oil ports were vulnerable to sea-level rise. Using Climate Central and Google Maps data, researchers showed that a one-meter rise would damage piers, storage facilities, refineries, and other infrastructure. The study also added Yanbu to the at-risk list, estimating that Ras Tanura and Yanbu exported oil worth $214 billion (£171 billion) last year, around 20% of global oil exports.
Murray Worth of Zero Carbon Analytics, part of the research team, stated, "This analysis shows that banking on fossil fuels in a warming world is a path to disaster, not energy security. Countries face a choice: stick with fossil fuels and risk supply disruptions as rising seas flood ports and terminals, or transition to safe and sustainable local renewables."
While defenses against flooding could be built, worth noted, "In the end, it’s a lost battle. You’ll have to keep raising those sea walls over time." The clock is ticking, and the world’s oil hubs, and indeed the planet, can’t afford to dither in the face of this impending threat.
