Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a significant erosion of support in northern Israel, a region critical to his electoral base. A new poll conducted by Agam Labs at Hebrew University reveals that voters in the north are abandoning the Likud party at a rate three times faster than in the rest of the country, signaling a potential shift as general elections approach in October.
The dissatisfaction is rooted in the ongoing security crisis along the border with Lebanon. Despite a ceasefire agreement reached on Wednesday—which requires Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon—many residents remain skeptical that such diplomatic measures will provide the security necessary to return to their homes in cities like Kiryat Shmona, which residents have described as a “ghost town.”
The Political Tightrope
Netanyahu finds himself caught between competing pressures. While residents of northern Israel are demanding a more aggressive, unconstrained military campaign to dismantle the threat posed by Hezbollah, the Prime Minister is simultaneously navigating diplomatic efforts led by the United States. Many voters believe Netanyahu is bowing to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to facilitate a deal, a perception that his political rivals are actively leveraging ahead of the upcoming election.
Did You Know? In the 2022 election, approximately half of the voters in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona supported Likud, but recent polling indicates that only 23% of northern voters now intend to back the party.
Expert Insight: The political stakes for Netanyahu are profound. As an “arch political survivor,” his coalition’s stability is being tested by a base that feels abandoned. The shift toward an anti-Netanyahu bloc suggests that the Prime Minister’s traditional “security-first” brand is losing its efficacy in the very regions that have historically served as his strongest political fortifications.
Potential Implications
The coming months may see further political volatility. With the opposition, including figures like former military chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot, aggressively targeting the north with a hawkish message, the pressure on Netanyahu to demonstrate a hardline stance is likely to intensify. Should the ceasefire prove fragile or ineffective at stopping rocket and drone attacks, the current disapproval—already at 70% regarding the handling of the war in the north—could deepen, potentially jeopardizing the governing coalition’s majority in the October elections.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest polling say about Likud’s standing in the north?
The Agam Labs poll shows support for Likud in the north has dropped to 23%, down from the 35% the party secured in the 2022 election.
Why are northern voters critical of the current government?
Approximately 70% of surveyed northern voters disapprove of the government’s handling of the war in Lebanon, with many residents desiring a more intense military response to end the threat of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks.
What is the status of the military conflict following recent diplomatic efforts?
While a ceasefire agreement was reached on Wednesday requiring Hezbollah to leave southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that military operations will continue for the time being.
How might the evolving security situation in the north ultimately reshape the landscape of the upcoming national elections?
