U.S. President Donald Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on Saturday that a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Middle East would be signed Sunday. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei challenged this timeline, stating the signing would not occur on that date, leaving the immediate future of the peace process uncertain.
The proposed memorandum of understanding aims to conclude the conflict that began February 28, following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. While the U.S. and Pakistan have pushed for an imminent electronic signing, Iranian officials have expressed caution, citing what they describe as hesitation from the other side.
Did You Know?
The conflict has significantly altered Iran’s leadership structure; the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an airstrike on the first day of the war and has been succeeded by his son, Mojtaba.
What are the terms of the proposed agreement?
The draft terms, described by multiple sources, center on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. In exchange, the U.S. would begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
A U.S. official confirmed that the deal includes a requirement to open the strait, potentially without tolls, followed by a demining process that may involve Group of Seven nations. While the U.S. has stated the deal would lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has indicated that Tehran intends to retain its uranium stockpile in a diluted form.
Why is the timing of the deal disputed?
The disagreement over the signing date highlights the fragility of the negotiations. While Prime Minister Sharif stated via X that the parties are “closer to a peace deal than ever before,” Iranian spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned that the exact date remains fluid.
This uncertainty persists even as military tensions continue. U.S. Central Command reported that its forces recently shot down multiple Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. described as a threat to commercial traffic. The U.S. maintains that the strait is currently open, despite Iran’s months-long blockade of the vital oil artery.
Expert Insight:
The conflicting narratives regarding the signing suggest a significant gap in expectations between Washington and Tehran. While the U.S. frames the deal as a comprehensive security resolution—targeting both the blockade and nuclear proliferation—Iranian rhetoric emphasizes the recovery of economic assets and the removal of foreign military bases. The exclusion of Israel from the memorandum, as confirmed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, further complicates the path to a regional ceasefire.
What happens next in the peace process?
If a memorandum is signed, the parties have outlined a roadmap for technical-level talks to follow. This phase is expected to include a 60-day period dedicated to addressing Iran’s nuclear program.
The situation remains volatile, particularly regarding the war in Lebanon. While Iranian officials have suggested the agreement would necessitate an Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas, the Israeli government has explicitly stated it will not withdraw and expects to maintain its freedom to act against perceived threats. The effectiveness of any signed memorandum may ultimately depend on whether these competing security demands can be reconciled during the proposed technical discussions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Israel be a party to this agreement?
No. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel will not be a party to the memorandum of understanding.
What is the U.S. position on the Strait of Hormuz?
The U.S. government views the opening of the strait as a mandatory requirement of the deal, to be carried out in conjunction with the lifting of U.S. naval blockades on Iranian ports.
What happens to Iran’s nuclear program under the proposal?
The U.S. official stated the agreement is intended to lead to the dismantling of the nuclear program and the removal of enriched uranium. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Iran wishes to retain its uranium in a diluted form.
How will the regional security landscape shift if the proposed agreement is finalized?
