Title: Russia‘s Ukraine Gambit: A Losing Game for Putin?
Three years into the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in a corner he chose, leaving his cards on the table, betting everything on victory. But what happens if he doesn’t win?
According to Tormod Heier, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Staff and professor II at the Norwegian University of Applied Sciences, Putin’s continued aggression might push Russia towards a要知道ismo (know-winnismo), a term Heier coined to describe the belief that victory is the only acceptable outcome.
"He [Putin] has put himself in a position where anything short of total victory would be a humiliation," Heier told ABC Nyheter.
A Knallhard Command Chain
Russia’s political landscape is characterized by a highly disciplined command structure, where dissent often comes with dire consequences. In this hierarchy, Putin is the undisputed leader, with everyone else serving him.
Elites around Putin understand that leaving the boat mid-journey often ends in tragedy—be it suicide, accidental falls, or mysterious illnesses. This brutal enforcement of loyalty ensures that Putin faces little internal resistance.
But what if the wheels come off? Can anyone dare to depose Putin?
"That would be extremely risky," Heier warns. "Russia is the world’s largest nuclear power. Toppling Putin could lead to instability, with unknown actors vying for power. The last thing we want is a desperate nuclear power."
The Russian Bear’s Nuclear Toys
The specter of nuclear war looms large over this conflict. With around 6,300 nuclear warheads, Russia has enough firepower to make any sane nation think twice before provoking it.
But how safe are these nuclear weapons with a strongman like Putin at the helm? Some experts argue that the very existence of these weapons threatens global security, given Putin’s penchant for brinkmanship.
Yet, others caution against underestimating Putin’s rationality. "Vladimir Putin knows what a nuclear winter looks like," said Jeffrey Sachs, a renowned economist and director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
Putin Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Putin’s miscalculations have led him to a precarious position. Having annexed Crimea in 2014 and supporting separatists in Eastern Ukraine since 2014, his latest move—the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—has escalated tensions to unprecedented levels.
War crimes accusations, international Isolation, and economic sanctions have only added to Putin’s woes. The war’s humanitarian cost, clocking over 7 million displaced persons and over 15,000 civilian deaths, continues to mount.
Despite the heavy toll, Putin’s backers in Russia remain unyielding. For them, Ukraine’s "denazification" and "demilitarization" represent the Kremlin’s holy mission.
A ‘Vicky’ Moment for Putin?
In history, leaders facing such dilemmas have often chosen to cut their losses to avoid complete humiliation. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain comes to mind. In 1938, he appeased Adolf Hitler in the Munich Agreement, agreeing to allow Nazi Germany’s annexation of the Sudetenland. Hitler broke the agreement the next year, invading Poland, and plunging the world into war.
Is Putin headed towards a similar "Munich in reverse" moment? Or will he persist, despite the mounting evidence that Ukraine won’t roll over easily?
Only time will tell. But as the body count rises and the international pressure builds, Putin might find himself cornered, with few good options left.
