Quebec’s already sluggish economy is slated to absorb the heaviest industrial toll in the country from a new wave of U.S. levies, shedding nearly $2 billion in annual output by 2028 according to a forecasting report.
Projected Economic Losses and Provincial Impact
According to forecasts from Oxford Economics, the restrictions will leave Quebec’s gross value added—a standard metric for industrial economic output—approximately 0.3 per cent lower by 2028 than projections otherwise indicated. This puts the province’s trajectory marginally worse than Ontario and New Brunswick, which round out the three hardest-hit provincial economies. Based on Quebec’s 2024 gross value added figures, analysts calculate the looming shortfall at roughly $1.8 billion.
Did You Know? The new 50 per cent import duties take aim at roughly $28 billion worth of Canadian merchandise, spanning selected wood products, machinery, furniture, clothing, food, alcohol, and consumer goods.
Market Competitiveness and Border Costs
The measures affect Canada through 50 per cent fees introduced earlier in August across a broad basket of domestic merchandise. Although American importers physically remit the border fees, Canadian enterprises absorb the operational blow. The policy directly erodes local competitiveness by driving up retail and wholesale prices for American buyers.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much output is Quebec expected to lose?
Oxford Economics estimates the province will lose close to $2 billion in annual output by 2028, with calculations based on 2024 figures pointing to a loss of around $1.8 billion.
Which provinces are facing the worst impacts?
Quebec faces the hardest hit to its industry of any province, followed closely by New Brunswick and Ontario as the other two most severely affected regions.
What goods are targeted by the new measures?
The policies target roughly $28 billion worth of Canadian goods, specifically focusing on selected wood products, machinery, furniture, clothing, food, alcohol, and consumer goods.