San Francisco residents face up to 30 king tides between November and February, with water levels currently running about six inches higher than normal and threatening low-lying neighborhoods across the Bay Area, Mayor Daniel Lurie announced.
Mayor Lurie Warns of 30 Winter Floods
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie announced in an Instagram video that the city faces up to 30 king tides this winter, threatening low-lying coastal neighborhoods. The video showed water actively lapping over the sides of the Ferry Building seawall. A spokesperson for the mayor told the San Francisco Chronicle that the 30-tide estimate originates from the Port of San Francisco’s Waterfront Resilience Program. That program relies on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The abnormally high water levels are predicted to peak right before and during both Thanksgiving and Christmas. Those peaks could disrupt holiday travel for commuters and visitors moving through low-lying Bay Area transit zones. A subsequent peak is officially scheduled for January 21.
Contrasting Projections From State Agencies
Discrepancies exist between local and state projections regarding the exact frequency of the flooding events. While the mayor’s office cites NOAA-backed data predicting more than 30 king tides, the California Coastal Commission’s King Tides Project forecasts just 10 king tides for San Francisco from late November through the end of January.
Despite the numerical disagreement between the municipal estimate and the coastal commission’s count, neither agency disputes that the incoming tides will sit significantly higher than normal seasonal averages.
NOAA Defines No Official Threshold for King Tides
According to NOAA, there is no official scientific definition for a king tide. However, the agency notes that any tide exceeding 1.2 feet can trigger minor flooding along San Francisco’s north coast.
Governor Newsom Declares Emergency for Incoming Severe Weather
Several compounding environmental factors are driving water levels well above historical norms. Climate change has steadily pushed global sea levels higher, while the moon’s gravitational pull is currently nearing its peak cycle. An active El Niño pattern has warmed the Pacific Ocean, causing marine water to physically expand.
Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the incoming tides and severe weather. Forecasters warn that if a major winter storm strikes simultaneously with a predicted high tide, water levels could surge to record levels. Such a compound event would exceed the flood damage recorded during tides last January.
Mayor Lurie Urges Residents to Sign up for Alert System
How can residents stay informed about incoming flood risks?
Mayor Daniel Lurie urged residents to text their specific ZIP code to 888-777 to enroll in AlertSF and receive direct notifications regarding local flood dangers.
What specific months carry the highest risk of coastal flooding?
The peak risk period spans from November through February, with specific surges coinciding directly with the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, as well as a subsequent high tide peak on January 21.