Southeast Asian diplomats convened in Cebu, Philippines, this week facing mounting pressure to address two critical regional challenges: Myanmar’s ongoing civil war and the need for a binding agreement governing conduct in the South China Sea.
Myanmar’s Protracted Crisis
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a bloc of 11 nations, has struggled to assert its influence amid escalating conflicts within its member states. Last year, fighting between Thailand and Cambodia over a border dispute highlighted these difficulties, though a ceasefire was ultimately brokered with the involvement of Malaysia and pressure from the United States.
Currently, ASEAN does not recognize Myanmar’s military government, barring its leaders from official meetings, though lower-level diplomats are permitted to participate. The civil war, which began following the 2021 coup, has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and widespread displacement. A five-point peace plan proposed by ASEAN in 2021 has yet to yield any significant progress toward de-escalation or dialogue.
Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar, recently met with ruling generals and representatives from opposition groups. She reported to her counterparts in Cebu on these discussions, emphasizing the need for a “Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led” solution, according to a post on X.
South China Sea Negotiations
Alongside the Myanmar crisis, ASEAN is also working to finalize a “code of conduct” with China regarding territorial disputes in the South China Sea before a self-imposed deadline this year. These disputes, involving overlapping claims from China and four ASEAN members, are considered a potential flashpoint, with the possibility of drawing in the United States, which has treaty obligations to defend the Philippines.
Negotiations, which have spanned over two decades, face significant hurdles, particularly concerning whether the code of conduct should be legally binding. Australia-based analyst Lupita Wijaya noted that even with strong political will, reaching a conclusion will be “challenging.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is ASEAN’s role in the Myanmar conflict?
ASEAN does not recognize the current military government in Myanmar and has proposed a five-point peace plan, but it has not been successful in ending the violence or fostering dialogue.
What are the key issues in the South China Sea dispute?
The main issues revolve around overlapping territorial claims between China and four ASEAN members, and whether a code of conduct to manage these disputes should be legally binding.
What was the outcome of the fighting between Thailand and Cambodia last year?
The fighting ended with a ceasefire brokered by Malaysia and influenced by pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened to withhold trade privileges.
Given the complexities of both the Myanmar crisis and the South China Sea dispute, it remains to be seen whether ASEAN can effectively navigate these challenges and achieve meaningful progress in the coming months.
