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Russia‘s Regional Leadership Crumbles: Expert Warns of Irreversible Damage

In a sobering assessment, Igor Dmitriyev, a former Ukrainian official who now supports Russia, has starkly declared that Moscow has effectively destroyed its own standing as a regional leader due to its ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.

Dmitriyev, who once served as a deputy in Odessa, took to his Telegram channel to express his dismay at Russia’s plummeting reputation, a report by Dialog.UA reveals. He pinpointed three key pillars that once underpinned Russia’s influence in the region—military might, energy exports, and cultural and informational clout—and lamented their erosion.

The abrupt halt to Russian gas transit through Ukraine has been a particularly bitter pill for Dmitriyev to swallow. He sees Ukraine transforming from a gateway to Europe into an insurmountable barrier for Russian ambitions.

Dmitriyev’s grim prognosis extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. He believes Russia’s aggression has set in motion an irreversible process that has undermined its standing across the post-Soviet space. Even a cessation of hostilities, he argues, would fail to restore Russia’s former glory.

"Russia’s regional leadership was built on military strength, energy exports, economic superiority, and cultural and informational influence," Dmitriyev wrote. "Questions surround its military might… Energy exports are self-explanatory. Meanwhile, cultural influence will wane as the Soviet generation passes away."

Dmitriyev predicts that Moscow will struggle to maintain influence in Africa without its strategic foothold in Syria. He foresees a dwindling number of partners and allies, leaving Russia with few viable diplomatic options.

This isn’t the first time Dmitriyev has sounded the alarm on Russia’s faltering fortunes. Earlier, he had predicted the imminent scaling back of the "Special Military Operation" and highlighted the trap that President Putin had sprung for himself in Ukraine.

Title: Biden Administration Believes China Helped Deter Putin from Using Nuclear Weapons

In a revelation that sheds light on the delicate geopolitical dance around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Biden administration has suggested that China may have played a role in preventing Russian President Vladimir Putin from resorting to nuclear weapons. In an interview with the Financial Times, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the seriousness with which the Biden administration viewed Russian nuclear threats and the potential restraint China might have exerted.

Blinken expressed significant concern over Russian nuclear threats, stating that Putin had at least considered using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. "Even at low probabilities, when we’re talking about nuclear weapons, there’s nothing more serious," Blinken emphasized. While the Ukraine war has escalated tensions between the U.S. and China, Blinken indicated that Beijing might have offered some assistance on the nuclear front.

"We have reason to believe that China was in touch with Russia and said, ‘Do not go there,’" Blinken told the Financial Times. This communication, Blinken suggested, could have occurred when the U.S. informed China about Putin’s plans to deploy nuclear weapons in space.

In recent months, Russia has been ratcheting up its nuclear rhetoric amidst the Ukraine conflict:

• In November 2022, Russia unveiled its new nuclear doctrine, which envisions scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. The doctrine allows for nuclear retaliation even against non-nuclear attacks, including the use of drones.
• Russia has also employed its allies to support its nuclear posturing. In December 2022, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko boasted that his country now possesses several dozen nuclear warheads, further stoking regional tensions.

As the global community continues to monitor the evolving situation in Ukraine and the fluctuations in international relations, the alleged Chinese intervention serves as a timely reminder of the complex web of diplomacy and deterrence at play.

Russia – BBC”>Ukraine‘s SBU Crackdown: Five Pro-Kremlin Propaganda Spouts Neutralized, Three Arrested, Two Sentenced

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has dealt a significant blow to Russia’s propaganda efforts, dismantling the networks of five pro-Kremlin activists who have been actively promoting the Russian war against Ukraine. Three of these individuals have been apprehended, while two have been sentenced to serve real jail time.

Arrests and Convictions:

On the frontlines of Donetsk, two staunch supporters of the "Russian world" were taken into custody. A resident of the besieged town of Mirnоград (Mernohrad) was spreading content on Odноклассники (Одноклассники) that justified Russian occupiers’ actions and attempted to undermine Ukraine’s defenders. Meanwhile, another propagandist in Rodynskoe openly supported Russian military formations and advocated for Ukraine’s disarmament.

In the southern region of Nikolayev, a resident of Pernomaysk was apprehended for circulating calls for a state coup. This individual exploited YouTube and Facebook, reaching over 10,000 users, to disseminate Kremlin narratives.

In the central region of Cherkasy, a pro-Kremlin activista from Uman rayon was sentenced to five years imprisonment after being arrested earlier this year. She had been maintaining anonymous accounts that praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and celebrated the occupation of Ukrainian territories.

A local resident in Hmelnytskyi was also sentenced to five years in prison for distributing pro-Russian propaganda videos on social media platforms. These videos glorified Russian mercenaries and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

Ongoing Efforts

The SBU operations, conducted in collaboration with regional prosecutor’s offices, are part of an ongoing campaign to combat anti-Ukrainian activities in the informational sphere.

For the latest news on Ukraine and other regional developments, stay tuned to Dialog.UA.

Headline:
Russian Progress on Kursk: Analyzing Five Months of Conflict

Article:

In the protracted battle for control of the Kursk region, now entering its fifth month, Russian forces have successfully regained up to 40% of the lost territory, as reported by various military analysts and sources. However, significant frontline shifts have yet to be observed, and the situation remains fluid.

Recent Russian military reports suggest advances near Mahinovka, but independent verification by organizations like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is still pending. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are reported to have repelled a Russian assault in the Pogrebkov area.

Both sides continue to clash along the contact line, with Russian military correspondents citing attacks on Ukrainian positions in Leonidovo and Kurilovka (Sudzhan district), while the Ukrainian military claims to have thwarted six Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian military observers estimate that Moscow‘s forces have recaptured between 40% to 50% of previously lost territories, whereas ISW pegs the Russian regain at approximately 39%, or 483 km2.

Despite these exchanges, the larger picture shows only incremental changes in territorial control, with Ukrainian forces currently holding about 585 km2 of Kursk region territory.

Adding a twist to the strategic calculus, Russian military deployments in the region now include North Korean troops, deployed near Ulanok, Cherkas Konopelka, and Fanasievka, according to Ukrainian intelligence reports.

Earlier, Dialog.UA highlighted Ukraine’s successful modernization of the Soviet-era SU-25 fighter-bomber into a sophisticated ground-attack aircraft. As the conflict intensifies, Ukrainian efforts to bolster its military capabilities, including developing new long-range missile systems capable of reaching the Russian capital, continue to drive the narrative forward.

Original article by Dmitriy Mironenko

Title: Putin Seeks End to Ukraine War, But on His Terms

A political analyst has suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is keen on ending the war against Ukraine, but under his own conditions. This comes amid speculation surrounding a planned meeting between Putin and US President Donald Trump on December 30, 2024, which was later called into question.

Political scientist Yakub Koreichba, in an analysis for 24tv.ua, shared that while Putin has hinted at a willingness to negotiate with the West, he simultaneously seeks to maintain Russia‘s global influence, putting the two sides at odds.

Trump, however, is reluctant to accept Putin’s vision for peace, according to Koreichba. The Ukrainian political expert believes the US President is aware of Putin’s propensity for stirring up conflict and seeks to avoid a similar outcome in the future.

Koreichba argued that Trump is only open to a meeting with Putin on his own terms, stating, "Trump is not seeking a meeting with Putin, but he is ready if Putin agrees to his conditions."

The political scientist also noted that Washington currently has no reason to capitulate to Russia, citing its perceived superiority over Moscow in both political and military power.

Recent Russian diplomatic activities, such as the prolonged stay of a special flight "Russia" in the US, may hint at Putin’s eagerness to establish a connection with the new US administration, Koreichba suggested.

Lastly, Koreichba referenced earlier reports by Dialog.UA, indicating that as of January 1, Putin had "rejected Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine."(1) (2)

This article is based on a report by Dialog.UA and does not necessarily reflect the views of the publication.

Ukraine Strikes Russian Positions with French AASM-250 ‘Hammer’ Guided Bombs from Su-25 Aircraft

Ukrainian forces have released footage of a precision airstrike on Russian positions, involving a Ukrainian Air Force Su-25 attack aircraft equipped with French AASM-250 ‘Hammer’ guided bombs. The strike, captured on video, was successfully executed near the front lines, demonstrating Ukraine’s airpower capabilities despite the ongoing conflict.

The Su-25, a formidable ground-attack aircraft, dropped the French bombs on Russian positions, effectively engaging the enemy before safely returning to base. The use of AASM-250 ‘Hammer’ bombs, which have a HIGH EXPLOSIVE OFfragmentation warhead and an innovative guidance system, allowed for precise strikes on the targeted locations.

Russian military expert Yan Matveev, commenting on the operation via Telegram, noted that the Ukrainian aircraft performed the bombing run close to the front line, with one of the targeted areas located approximately 15 kilometers from the line of contact. The Su-25 pilot employed a skilled maneuver, known as a ‘pull-up’ or ‘zoom climb’, to launch the bombs onto their target.

"This maneuver allows the aircraft to increase the range of the bomb while minimizing its exposure to enemy air defense systems," Matveev explained. "The AASM-250 ‘Hammer’, with its reactive boosters and advanced guidance systems, enables the Ukrainian military to maintain close air support capabilities despite the adversaries’ attempts to suppress them."

The successful strike has ignited mixed reactions within Russian Z-patriotic circles, with some acknowledging the false Russian claims about the destruction of Ukrainian air force during the early stages of the ‘Special Military Operation’. The strike also follows previous incidents where the ‘Hammer’ guided bombs have been used to great effect against Russian targets.

Earlier reported by Dialog.UA, the ‘Hammer’ bombs had previously deliriously targeted a Federal Security Bureau (FSB) base in the village of Tetkino. In another instance, a MiG-29 fighter jet使用跟 The ‘Hammer’ to devastatingly eliminate Russian occupiers in the vicinity of a military airport in the O8brazhzhia region.

Headline: "Blue Fire Instead of ‘Blue Light‘: Russian Artists Pray for Putin‘s Strength in Russia's Heaviest Casualties Since Ukraine Invasion: 1,000 Dead or Wounded in a Day”>Ukraine Invasion"

In a bizarre twist to the traditional New Year’s "Blue Light" celebrations, Russian state TV replaced entertainment with eerie rituals, urging viewers to pray for President Vladimir Putin’s strength in the ongoing Ukraine invasion. This year’s event, aired on the propaganda-heavy "First Channel," was more akin to a coven than a concert, leaving viewers bewildered and appalled.

The once-revered New Year’s specials have long since lost their luster, degenerating into war propaganda since Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine began. This year’s "Blue Light" took the disturbing trend to new heights, with artists openly calling for divine intervention to bolster Putin’s war efforts.

Russian rapper ST capped off the show with a performance of "Give Him Strength," a song that echoed pleas for Putin’s victory over Ukraine. The performance was accompanied by a slideshow of the Russian president, drawing explicit parallels between the lyrics and the ongoing conflict.

ST was not the only artist to engage in such blatant propaganda. Veteran musicians Grigory Leps, Nikolai Rastorguev, and the controversial "Shaman" joined forces to sing "We Won’t Spare Any Cost," a chilling anthem that seemed to embody Russia’s unyielding stance in the war.

The lineup for the event was carefully curated to include only artists who have either openly supported the war or maintained a conspicuous silence on the issue. This is not the first time the Putin regime has leveraged its "Z-artists" to push its war narrative. According to reports, the Russian government has spent a staggering 38 million rubles (around $550,000) on Shaman’s performances alone since the start of the war in February 2022.

Earlier this year, Shaman made headlines when he embarrassingly struggled to explain his affinity for Western brands during a live TV interview, further cementing his status as a symbol of Russia’s cultural decay under Putin’s rule.

As the war in Ukraine rages on, it seems that Russia’s New Year’s celebrations have become as divisive and dystopian as the regime they support. While the rest of the world rang in 2023 with hope and optimism, Russia’s state TV viewers were left with an unsettling reminder of the brutal conflict unfolding on their doorstep.

Title: Ukraine: Latest news, analysis and videos – CNN”>Russia‘s 2024 Assault on Donbass and Kharkiv Stalls; Ukraine and West Plan Countermeasures

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Article:

In 2024, the Kremlin had ambitious plans to fully seize Ukraine’s Donbass region and create a buffer zone on Kharkiv Oblast, but both aims remained elusive by the end of the year. Russia’s military began 2024 with a bang, capturing Avdiivka and launching a new offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. However, their progress slowed down significantly, leading Russia to shift its main effort to capturing Pokrovsk in the remaining months of the year.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the battlefield situation in 2024 and provided insights for the new year. Facing an unexpected Ukrainian breakthrough in Kursk, Russia redeployed its forces towards the Pokrovske direction. Russia mounted multiple mechanized assaults around Kurakhove, Ugledar, and Velyka Novoselka, incurring heavy equipment losses. Analysts anticipate that the Kremlin may temporarily divert its focus towards advancing its army to Dnipropetrovsk borders.

In 2024, Russian forces managed to occupy only four major cities – Avdiivka, Selydove, U houdenar, and Kurakhove. However, the combined pre-war population of these cities was barely over 120,000. ISW currently assesses that Russia needs to capture an additional 8,559 km2, including significant Ukrainian defensive positions and major cities along the fortress belt, to seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast. At Russia’s current pace, this operation could take around two years.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian defenders also face challenges, despite successfully slowing or halting Russia’s advance in areas like Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Ukraine must bolster its military capabilities, especially its artillery, and maintain the morale of its troops. Analysts urge the Ukrainian military to prioritize drones, artillery, and long-range strikes in 2025, while also addressing infantry issues to undermine Russia’s victory theory.

Headline: Russia’s Demographic Crisis: Putin’s policies driving Russian population decline, says ‘Freedom of Russia’ Legion deputy chief

Article:

In a revealing interview with Evgenia Kutnova for the YouTube channel "Fabrika Novстей", Cesar, the deputy leader of the ‘Freedom of Russia’ Legion, has drawn concern to the alarming decrease in Russia’s population, a trend he believes is significantly exacerbated by President Putin’s governance.

"Over the last decade, Russia has lost 9 million people," Cesar stated. To put this into perspective, the toll during the Civil War and World War I was 8 million each. This devastating demographic shift can largely be attributed to Putin’s policies, leading to the decline of the Russian and other indigenous populations.

The invasion of Ukraine has accelerated this process exponentially. Hundreds of thousands have been killed or maimed, while those remaining in Russia aren’t interested in procreating. "Why bring children into the world only to send them off as cannon fodder?" Cesar questioned, asserting that Russia’s population is slowly reaching boiling point, becoming acutely aware of Putin’s regime as a death sentence for the nation.

Economically speaking, the Russian economy is teetering on the brink. The budget for next year is earmarked for increased military spending, a scenario reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s downfall during the Afghan war when oil prices were slashed by Arabs. The current conflict with Ukraine is far more brutal and resource-intensive, and oil-producing nations are signaling further price reductions, indicating a bleak future for the Putin regime.

Cesar pointed out that political and economic conditions are conducive to the regime’s eventual collapse, with a potential trigger event looming on the horizon. "Something might happen to spark a wave of resistance among Russians," he said, adding that the current situation closely mirrors the atmosphere preceding the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Russia’s demographic crisis is a stark reminder of the human cost of Putin’s policies, both domestically and internationally. With Cesar’s insights, it’s evident that the regime’s days are numbered, and its collapse seems imminent.

Russia Withdraws Kursk region”>810th Marine Brigade from fighting in Kursk after Heavy Losses

In a strategic move, the Russian Ministry of Defense has decided to withdraw units from the 810th Marine Brigade from combat in Kursk, granting them respite and restoration time. The decision comes after four months of relentless fighting, during which the brigade has suffered significant losses.

Originally numbering around 2,500 personnel, the 810th Marine Brigade, along with elements from the 155th Marine Brigade, were deployed to the Kursk region. Following their recent deployment, the brigade is currently stationed in Plehovo for rest and rehabilitation. This temporary rotation was described by Z-bloggers as an opportunity for Russian forces to catch their breath.

Russian war correspondents have maintained that this withdrawal is not indicative of retreat or defeat, but rather a necessary measure to allow their troops to recover. Notably, the 155th Marine Brigade has previously faced complete destruction during the war, necessitating its remake from scratch.

The 810th Marine Brigade has also sustained substantial losses. Two battalions were deployed to Pogrebki, but almost all were deployed to Kobzon during combat with Ukrainian forces. Additionally, a recent Ukrainian strike on the brigade’s command post in Lov osztály further underscores the challenges faced by Russian troops.

While Plehovo is intended for rest and rotation, Z-war correspondents acknowledge that it remains within reach of Ukrainian artillery fire. The ongoing battles for Kursk entail a high price for Russian forces, despite their numerical superiority. In four months, Russian and North Korean troops have managed to reclaim around 25% of the previously lost territory.

Accurately estimating the combined casualties of Russian and North Korean forces remains elusive. However, President Zelensky‘s assertions that North Korea has lost 25% of its forces suggest that Russia may have incurred similar losses.

In related news, Ukraine has developed a novel weapon to counter enemy drones, while Ukrainian border guards report Russian forces amassing sufficient strength for a potential breakthrough on Kharkiv.

Sources: Forbes, Dialog.UA