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"Russia Boosts Production of ‘Shahed’ Drones for Winter Offensive Against Ukraine – ISW"

by Chief Editor December 28, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Headline: Russia Boosts ‘Shahed‘ Drone Production Ahead of Ukraine Winter Campaign

Subheading: Despite sanctions and technical hurdles, Russia ramps up production of Iran-designed drones.

Body:

Russia is escalating its production of ‘ Shahed’ drones in preparation for its winter campaign against Ukraine in 2024-2025, according to a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The report, citing Ukrainian intelligence, reveals that a Russian factory in the special economic zone of ‘Alabuga‘ in Tatarstan has manufactured a staggering 5,760 ‘Shahed’ drones between January and September 2024—more than double the amount produced in the entire previous year.

The factory has reportedly secured a contract to produce another 6,000 drones by September 2025, indicating an ambitious scaling-up of Russia’s drone production capabilities. In addition to these combat drones, Russia is also developing and producing decoy drones in large numbers, with plans to manufacture up to 10,000 units by the end of 2024.

The ISW report indicates that Russia is taking steps to optimize its drone production, including the construction of two new workshops in Alabuga and the installation of anti-drone nets over buildings. Furthermore, Russia has established a direct railway line between Russia and China to enhance the logistics of delivering crucial drone components.

Challenges and Countermeasures

While Russia continues to expand its drone production, it faces significant challenges due to Western sanctions. These include difficulties in sourcing high-quality components, leading to the use of low-grade Chinese motors. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s advancements in radio-electronic warfare have proven effective in countering ‘Shahed’ drone strikes.

The build-up of Russian drone capabilities coincides with reports of significant losses among North Korean troops in the conflict. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have launched a precision strike on a Russian headquarters in the occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region, while Finland has arrested a Russian oil tanker suspected of damaging undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

As the geopolitical tension persists, Russia appoints Sergei Shoigu, the Secretary of the Security Council, as the chairman of the newly established Scientific Expert Council under the Security Council.


Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukraine Intelligence

December 28, 2024 0 comments
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Fico Launches Attack on Zelenskyy, Threatens Retaliation Over Gas Transit Halt

by Chief Editor December 27, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Sokol Report: Slovakia化’était Prime Minister Robert Fico Slams Ukraine‘s Gas Transit Refusal, Threatens Reciprocal Measures

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has criticized the Ukrainian government for its decision to halt the transit of Russian gas through its territory after 2024, and has hinted at potential retaliation.

In a statement issued on Friday, December 27, Fico argued that ending the gas transit would be an "extremely expensive gesture" not just for Slovakia, but for the entire European Union. He estimated that Slovakia stands to lose around €500 million in transit fees, while Ukraine could lose nearly €1 billion, a figure that pales in comparison to Russia’s projected loss of €2.5 billion.

Fico also decried the fact that Slovakia, which depends on Russian gas for a significant portion of its energy needs, would likely face higher gas prices in the short term. "Who cares about little Slovakia, right, President Zelensky?" he quipped, adding that Ukraine would only seek support when it needed energy to survive the winter.

The Slovak leader threatened that after the current gas transit agreement expires in January 2025, his government would reassess the situation and consider retaliatory measures. These could potentially include halting electricity supplies to Ukraine or pursuing other unspecified options.

Slovakia has long attempted to broker an extension of the gas transit agreement, due to expire in 2024, between Ukraine and Russia. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently ruled out any renewal of the deal with Gazprom, stating that Ukraine would not agree to transport Russian gas under the guise of Azeri gas.

Fico’s comments come amidst a backdrop of controversial diplomatic moves. In November, he paid a contentious visit to Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a move that was widely criticized in the West.

December 27, 2024 0 comments
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U.S. ATACMS Missile Stocks in Ukraine May be Depleting

by Chief Editor December 27, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Headline:

US-Origin ATACMS Rocket Remnants Found in Russian Airport; Ukrainian Supplies Running Low

Article:

In a recent development, the Russian Ministry of Defense has released a photograph purporting to show remnants of a US-produced ATACMS rocket at Kursk-Vostochny Airport in Kursk Oblast, Russia. This revelation comes amid reports that Ukraine‘s supply of these missiles is dwindling, potentially due to a shift in the US policy under the newly elected President Donald Trump.

Source: The New York Times

Background:

Last spring, the United States transferred around 500 ATACMS missiles from Pentagon stockpiles to Ukraine. Initially, these missiles could only be used against targets in occupied territories like Crimea. However, midway through November, the Biden administration authorized their use for strikes deep into Russian territory. At that point, Ukraine reportedly had only "dozens" left, possibly around 50.

Current Situation:

According to The New York Times, citing two American officials, the opportunity to acquire more ATACMS missiles has largely been exhausted. Limited supplies have been rerouted to meet demands in other regions, particularly the Middle East and Asia. Similarly, the UK, which also approved the use of its long-range Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory, has expressed similar constraints on its supplies.

Former US President Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time suggests he is unlikely to alter this situation. Trump criticized the Biden administration’s decision to provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, calling it "foolish." Notably, Russia’s response aligned with Trump’s stance.

Since receiving clearance from the US and UK, Ukraine is believed to have launched at least six missile strikes using 31 ATACMS missiles and 14 Storm Shadow missiles, according to Russian Ministry of Defense and military blogger reports. Neither the US nor Ukraine has disputed these figures.

One notable strike on November 20 involved a Storm Shadow missile targeting a Russian command bunker near the settlement of Mar’yino in Kursk Oblast. American officials and analysts consider this strike highly effective.

Following this incident, Russia launched its new hypersonic ballistic missile, "Oreshnik," over the Dnieper on the next day. Later, General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, held a phone call with US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown to discuss "concerns over further escalation."

After this conversation, Ukraine refrained from using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles for roughly two weeks. During this period, Russia reduced its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, despite its threats to target Kiev with the Oreshnik missile if Ukraine continued using ATACMS rockets on Russian soil. American officials believe that Putin is adopting a cautious approach to Ukrainian operations.

views from the experts:

Despite the dwindling supply, Ukrainian officials believe in maximizing the potency of their remaining ATACMS missiles. One military analyst from the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Nikolai Beleskov, explained, "We decided to hold off and seek high-value targets. Quick results shouldn’t be expected, as we need to preserve this capacity and use it judiciously."

December 27, 2024 0 comments
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Russia’s Rocket ‘Oreshnik’: Dependence on Western Equipment for Production

by Chief Editor December 27, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Title: Russia‘s Rocket Riddle: Western Tech Still Drives Putin’s ‘Orekh‘ Missile

Article:

In a compelling investigation, the Financial Times has delved into the production chain of Russia’s experimental ‘Orekh’ medium-range ballistic missile, revealing an unsuspected reliance on Western manufacturing equipment. This dependency continues to persist despite concerted efforts by the Russian regime to develop domestic alternatives and the imposition of Western sanctions.

The FT analyzed Russian job listings from leading defense institutions involved in the ‘Orekh’ project, including the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MIIT) and ‘Star Cluster’. These job postings hint at a critical shortage of experts familiar with NUM-level metalworking systems produced by German and Japanese companies like Fanuc, Siemens, and Haidenhain.

"The ‘Orekh’, despite its status as an experimental weapon, was manufactured using these critical Western systems," the FT reported. Computer numerical control (CNC) technology, crucial for high-precision material formation and swiftly adaptable to new designs, is particularly sought after.

Evidently, even MIIT—Russia’s premier institution for developing solid-fuel ballistic missiles—relies heavily on these Western systems. In its 2024 job listings, MIIT explicitly mentioned using Fanuc, Siemens, and Haidenhain systems. The same trio is requested in ‘Star Cluster’ vacancies, where the focus is on automated management systems for military use.

What’s more, a video released by ‘Titan Barrikady’, the third major defense contractor working on the ‘Orekh’, shows a machine operator standing in front of a device labeled ‘Fanuc’.

While Russia has long depended on foreign-produced metalworking machines, Western producers of CNC systems have remained a primary target for factional pressure. Although Russia imports high-precision metalworking machines en masse from China, the control systems for these machines continue to flow in from the West.

According to a FT analysis, 11 out of the 12 CNC devices showcased by Chinese companies at a major Russian exhibition in 2024 were equipped with Japanese or German controller units.

Even ‘Stan’, the Russian company leading domestic CNC production efforts, was found to be using Heidenhain equipment. This highlights the paradoxical situation where Russian military production, contrary to the image projected by state propaganda, is heavily entwined with Western technology.

Stemming the flow of CNC controllers and related equipment to Russia has emerged as a priority for Ukraine’s allies. These devices are categorized in a ‘critical goods’ watchlist, where Putin’s military-industrial complex has proved particularly susceptible.

The FT’s analysis of Russian trade declarations indicates that supply of these critical components continues to this day. Heidenhain, in particular, saw at least $3 million worth of deliveries to Russia since the beginning of 2024. Some of these orders were traced to customers directly involved in military production.

Responding to queries, executives at Fanuc, Siemens, and Heidenhain firms denied supporting Russia’s defense efforts. Siemens stated that its stance on sanctions was non-negotiable, and promised to investigate any breaches.

This dependence on Western tech is another irony in the saga of the ‘Orekh’. While Russian state media praises it as a groundbreaking, homegrown weapon, its production and fine-tuning have proven largely reliant on Western technology.

In a surprising twist, recent findings from Defense Express reveal that the ‘Orekh’ launched against Ukraine last month may not be the cutting-edge weapon touted by Putin. A serial number on one of its parts dates back to 2017, suggesting that the missile was fabricated long before its claimed trial run.

As the West continues to assist Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression, the spotlight is turned on the West’s own defense industry—the unintentional enabler of Russia’s military development. The paradox of supporting an enemy through technological know-how could shape Western policy towards Russia’s weapons production in the future.

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December 27, 2024 0 comments
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Hostile Drone Strikes Hit Ukrainian Regions

by Chief Editor December 27, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Headline: Overnight Alert: Ukraine Fights Off Wave of Unmanned Aerial Attacks

Article:

In the early hours of December 27, the Air Force of Ukraine reported a series of hostile drone attacks targeting various regions across the country. The incidents, which spanned several hours, saw groups of enemy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) heading towards different regions.

Timeline of the Incidents:

  • 00:35: The Air Force (AF) warned of new groups of UAVs moving from the Sumy region towards Poltava.
  • Approximately midnight: AF informed that several groups of UAVs were approaching Zolotonosha, a city in the Chernihiv region.
  • 01:37: AF reported more UAVs from the Poltava region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
  • 01:59: A pair of UAVs from Poltava was tracked moving towards the Kyiv region.
  • 02:24: AF confirmed that several groups of strike UAVs were moving south from Kyiv.

Countermeasures and Aftermath:

The Ukrainian military swiftly responded to these threats. At 02:58, AF declared that the threat from the strike UAVs had been neutralized.

As the situation unfolds, the Ukrainian Air Force continues to monitor and defend the nation’s airspace, maintaining vigilance to any potential threats.

Source: Ukrainian Air Force Telegram

December 27, 2024 0 comments
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"Putin Expresses Desire to End War, Yet Reiterates Strategic Objectives"

by Chief Editor December 26, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Headline: Putin Expresses Desire to End Ukraine War by 2025, but Vows to Press Ahead with Military Operations

In a recent interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he is "striving" to conclude the ongoing war in Ukraine by 2025. However, he swiftly emphasized his commitment to achieving his objectives in the conflict, indicating that military operations will continue into the new year.

Putin, when asked about the prospect of the war ending next year, responded, "We too are striving for the completion of this conflict." Yet, he promptly reiterated his intention to fulfill all tasks related to the so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine, stating, "This is our main task. We will strive for success on the contact line."

The Russian leader’s comments come on the heels of a meeting with Sловацкого премьера Роберта Фицо in Moscow on December 22, during which the latter supposedly offered Slovakia as a venue for peace talks. However, Putin’s remarks suggest that any diplomatic efforts may be contingent on military gains.

This latest development is part of a series of statements from Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict. Just last week, during his annual press conference, he claimed that Russia was ready for negotiations and compromises with Ukraine. He also proposed a technological experiment involving a missile strike on a target in Kyiv, and expressed regret that he hadn’t launched the "special military operation" earlier.

As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, Putin’s statements underscore the complex dynamics at play, with diplomatic overtures seemingly intertwined with military ambitions. The international community awaits further developments as the situation continues to evolve.

December 26, 2024 0 comments
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Lavrov Reveals: France Proposed Back-Channel Talks on Ukraine War

by Chief Editor December 26, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Title: France‘s Ambiguity in Ukraine Conflict: Lavrov Claims Secret Peace Offers, Yet France Trains Ukrainian Forces

In a surprising revelation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has claimed that France has repeatedly reached out to Russia via secret channels, proposing to mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict without Ukraine’s involvement. Lavrov stated this in an interview with Russian and international media outlets, as reported by "Eurointegration" and "Kommersant".

Lavrov asserted that while Russia hasn’t refused these offers, France’s actions appear contradictory. He emphasized that simultaneously, France is championing the idea of deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine and training Ukrainian military personnel on French soil. "France’s ambiguous behavior makes it difficult to take their initiatives seriously," Lavrov concluded.

This isn’t the first time France has attempted to compile an "action-oriented" coalition of European countries. Earlier reports suggested that France is attempting to gather a group of 5-8 countries to collectively address the Ukraine crisis, as shared by Reuters. Furthermore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously acknowledged discussions about a possible UN peacekeeping mission deployment in Ukraine, expressing optimism about the support of certain world leaders.

Russia’s allegations about France’s secret diplomatic overtures may add another layer of complexity to Europe’s united front against Moscow. While France, along with other European countries, has staunchly supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and did not recognize the annexation of Crimea, Russia’s claims suggest a differing perception of France’s role in the conflict.

However, France’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is yet to respond to Russia’s claims. As the situation unfolds, one thing is clear: the international community’s response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine remains multifaceted and nuanced.

December 26, 2024 0 comments
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Air Force Strikes Russian Plant Producing Missile Fuel

by Chief Editor December 26, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Ukrainian Air Forces Strike Russian Rocket Fuel Plant in Ukraine Targets Russian Fuel Factory for Ballistic Missiles”>Kamensk-Shakhtinsky

In a precision strike, the Ukrainian Air Force targeted a key Russian manufacturing facility, significantly impeding the Kremlin’s ability to maintain its barrage of ballistic missiles aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure. The strategic blow was dealt to a plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, Russia, which was instrumental in producing solid fuel for the rockets used in widespread attacks against Ukrainian civilian and critical facilities.

Background:

  • December 22, 2024: Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operated by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) struck the "Kadamovsky" testing ground inNewsovocherkassk, Rostov region.
  • December 25-26, 2024: Gleb Vasilyevich, the governor of Belgorod Oblast, Russia, reported a drone attack on Belgorod Oblast, leaving six settlements without electricity.

Source: Strategic Communications Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)

December 26, 2024 0 comments
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Ukrainian Drones Target Major Russian Arms Depot

by Chief Editor December 26, 2024
written by Chief Editor

Title: Ukrainian SBU Behind Strike on Russia‘s ‘Kadamovsky‘ Polygon

In a significant development, a source close to Ukrainian Pravda has revealed that the Servicе de Securitate а Statului (SBU), Ukraine’s primary security agency, is behind the recent attack on Russia’s ‘Kadamovsky’ polygon in NewsCherkassk, Rostov region.

The Attack

The incident occurred on the night of December 22, transforming the polygon into a spectacle of ‘cotton wool’ as several drones struck the facility. The strike triggered an explosion and subsequent detonation of ammunition stored on the site. According to the source, the attack was devastating, completely destroying the enemy’s stockpile used to resupply its troops along the Kramatorsk axis.

The Lead-Up

Hours before the attack, the Astra group announced that a strike had damaged the ‘Kadamovsky’ polygon, Russia’s largest military training ground. Astra reported that several unmanned aerial vehicles hit the site in the settlement of Persyanovsky, sparking a blaze and ammunition detonation. Notably, the 150th Motor Rifle Division is stationed near the polygon.

SEO-Focused Key Points:

  1. SBU (Ukraine’s security agency) claimed responsibility for the strike.
  2. ‘Kadamovsky’ polygon is Russia’s largest military training ground.
  3. The attack was executed using drones, causing a significant blaze and ammunition detonation.
  4. The polygon supplies troops along the Kramatorsk axis, making it a crucial target.
  5. The 150th Motor Rifle Division is stationed near the facility.

Engaging Narrative:

The recent attack on Russia’s ‘Kadamovsky’ polygon has sent ripples through the region, with Ukraine’s SBU claiming responsibility for the strategic strike. Drones turned the night into day, painting the sky with a cotton-like spectacle before striking the heart of Russia’s largest military training ground. The consiguent explosion and ammunition detonation have left the enemy reeling, as they grapple with the loss of a critical supply hub for their troops along the Kramatorsk axis. As the ashes settle, one thing is clear – the balance of power in the region has been reset.

December 26, 2024 0 comments
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Biden Orders Pentagon to Boost Weapons Supplies to Ukraine After Heavy Russian Attack

by Chief Editor December 26, 2024
written by Chief Editor

President Biden Vows Continued U.S. Support for Ukraine Amid Holiday Attack

U.S. President Joe Biden has responded to Russia‘s massive strike on Ukraine during Christmas, reassuring that he has directed the Pentagon to escalate weapons supplies to Ukraine. In a statement released by the White House, Biden confirmed that the U.S. has provided hundreds of air defense missiles to Ukraine in recent months, with more en route.

"In the early hours of Christmas, Russia launched waves of missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities and critical energy infrastructure," Biden said. "The goal of this outrageous attack was to deny the Ukrainian people access to heat and electricity this winter and to threaten the safety of their power systems."

Biden underscored that the Ukrainian people "deserve to live in peace and security." He emphasized that the United States and the international community must keep supporting Ukraine until it triumphs over Russian aggression. "The United States will continue relentlessly working to bolster Ukraine’s positions against Russian forces," he added.

On Christmas Eve, Russian forces launched a combined strike on Ukraine’s fuel and energy sector using various air, land, and sea-based missiles, along with Shahed drones and other types of imitation drones. Ukraine’s defense forces downed 55 cruise missiles, four guided air-to-surface missiles, and 54 enemy drones out of 184 aerial targets Russia launched.

As the Biden administration’s term nears an end in January 2025, the Washington Post reported that it may not be able to send all the military aid authorized by Congress to Ukraine. Pentagon officials have noted that they have reached the limit of weapons they can monthly ship to Ukraine without compromising their own readiness, and are facing logistical challenges in deliveries.

Earlier, Biden requested $24 billion more from Congress for military aid to Ukraine and to restock U.S. arms transferred to Kyiv. However, the incoming Congress, with a Republican majority, is unresponsive to this request. Meanwhile, a State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, stated that the U.S. believes the military assistance already provided or planned will be sufficient for Ukraine to fight until the end of 2025.

December 26, 2024 0 comments
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