U.S. ATACMS Missile Stocks in Ukraine May be Depleting

by Chief Editor

Headline:

US-Origin ATACMS Rocket Remnants Found in Russian Airport; Ukrainian Supplies Running Low

Article:

In a recent development, the Russian Ministry of Defense has released a photograph purporting to show remnants of a US-produced ATACMS rocket at Kursk-Vostochny Airport in Kursk Oblast, Russia. This revelation comes amid reports that Ukraine‘s supply of these missiles is dwindling, potentially due to a shift in the US policy under the newly elected President Donald Trump.

Source: The New York Times

Background:

Last spring, the United States transferred around 500 ATACMS missiles from Pentagon stockpiles to Ukraine. Initially, these missiles could only be used against targets in occupied territories like Crimea. However, midway through November, the Biden administration authorized their use for strikes deep into Russian territory. At that point, Ukraine reportedly had only "dozens" left, possibly around 50.

Current Situation:

According to The New York Times, citing two American officials, the opportunity to acquire more ATACMS missiles has largely been exhausted. Limited supplies have been rerouted to meet demands in other regions, particularly the Middle East and Asia. Similarly, the UK, which also approved the use of its long-range Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory, has expressed similar constraints on its supplies.

Former US President Donald Trump’s recent interview with Time suggests he is unlikely to alter this situation. Trump criticized the Biden administration’s decision to provide ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, calling it "foolish." Notably, Russia’s response aligned with Trump’s stance.

Since receiving clearance from the US and UK, Ukraine is believed to have launched at least six missile strikes using 31 ATACMS missiles and 14 Storm Shadow missiles, according to Russian Ministry of Defense and military blogger reports. Neither the US nor Ukraine has disputed these figures.

One notable strike on November 20 involved a Storm Shadow missile targeting a Russian command bunker near the settlement of Mar’yino in Kursk Oblast. American officials and analysts consider this strike highly effective.

Following this incident, Russia launched its new hypersonic ballistic missile, "Oreshnik," over the Dnieper on the next day. Later, General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the general staff, held a phone call with US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown to discuss "concerns over further escalation."

After this conversation, Ukraine refrained from using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles for roughly two weeks. During this period, Russia reduced its missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, despite its threats to target Kiev with the Oreshnik missile if Ukraine continued using ATACMS rockets on Russian soil. American officials believe that Putin is adopting a cautious approach to Ukrainian operations.

views from the experts:

Despite the dwindling supply, Ukrainian officials believe in maximizing the potency of their remaining ATACMS missiles. One military analyst from the National Institute for Strategic Studies, Nikolai Beleskov, explained, "We decided to hold off and seek high-value targets. Quick results shouldn’t be expected, as we need to preserve this capacity and use it judiciously."

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