Tuesday’s election brought a blue wave across the country, raising questions for investors about whether it signals a lasting political realignment for the 2028 presidential election. Statistically, historical data suggests the outcome should have little direct effect on the race two years from now. CNBC analyzed elections dating back to 1938 to examine whether midterms where the incumbent party lost seats portend anything about the subsequent presidential contest.
Opposition party gains 41 House seats in recent election
Tuesday’s election resulted in the largest House seat loss for the incumbent party in the White House since 2018. Estimates from CNBC’s analysis indicate the opposition party gained 41 House seats as close races are still being tallied, placing the shift 10th on the historical list of midterm wave elections.
"It’s plain as day: the GOP’s largest presidential prize is now an unambiguous swing state. And if they can’t retain Texas’s 40 electoral votes, Republicans have virtually no path to the presidency."https://t.co/p74kjkMf34
Democrats forfeited 72 seats in the House during 1938—marking the worst historical decline—due to a fresh economic downturn, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s push for court-packing, and internal party clashes he faced with conservative Democrats. Despite that massive legislative defeat, Roosevelt won reelection two years later in 1940. Similarly, Republicans swept to power in the House in 2010 during Barack Obama’s first term after Democrats lost 64 seats, yet Obama also secured reelection two years later.
Expert Insight: Examining historical voting patterns reveals that congressional midterms often function as a referendum on current economic and political conditions rather than a reliable blueprint for the executive branch contest that follows two years later.
Progressives are winning — big time. Candidates we endorsed in this election won: 15 of 16 House races 3 of 4 Senate races And flipped 6 Republican-held House seats From MI to TX, ME and everywhere in between, candidates across the country took on the billionaire class and WON.
Incumbent reelection follows top four wave elections
Every single incumbent succeeded in securing another term following the four largest wave elections, all of which took place prior to a president’s final term. Conversely, the next five waves saw the incumbent party lose the White House. This trend includes John F. Kennedy defeating Richard Nixon in 1960 after Republicans lost seats under President Dwight Eisenhower in 1958, as well as Joe Biden defeating Donald Trump in 2020 following Republican losses in 2018.
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates and Democratic pollster for the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, noted that midterm waves frequently fail to carry forward due to the unique weight of individual personalities in presidential matchups. “A lot can happen in two years. And while presidential elections are certainly subject to the overall political environment, they are also very much about each party’s nominee,” Campbell said, adding that candidate quality matters significantly more in presidential races than in congressional ones.
"Barack Obama's 2012 campaign manager, Jim Messina, told Bloomberg TV this week that he's already met with 29 potential (2028) candidates." 🫠 https://t.co/AslIYz4F6O
Answering questions about historical House seat losses
What was the size of the recent House seat loss?
Tuesday’s election resulted in an estimated 41 House seats gained by the opposition party, making it the largest House seat loss for an incumbent party in the White House since 2018 and ranking 10th in historical midterm wave analyses.
Did presidents historically win reelection after major midterms?
Yes, of the top four wave elections occurring before a president’s final term, the incumbent went on to win reelection each time, including Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1940 and Barack Obama in 2012.
Race For 2028 Heats Up After US Midterms Firestorm Donald Trump’s stunning midterms defeat by the Democrats has upended another US election — the race to replace him in the White House in 2028.https://t.co/oJiNt4l8dT pic.twitter.com/F1VdOUdhJ1
What factors drove the 1938 midterm wave?
The 1938 midterm losses occurred amid a renewed recession, opposition to court-packing by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and battles between the president and conservatives within his own party.
How will individual nominees shape national politics leading up to 2028?
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