Concerns over fluctuating water levels in the Indus River, particularly the Chenab, were raised by Pakistan in December 2025. Islamabad alleges that sudden, unannounced changes in water discharge are impacting downstream availability and reigniting anxieties about water security. These accusations arrive at a time when the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), originally signed in 1960, is currently in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attacks in April 2025, and as climate change reshapes water flows across South Asia.
The Treaty’s Enduring Challenges
The IWT, brokered by the World Bank, was designed to foster stability in a post-Partition landscape marked by displacement and food insecurity. While the treaty has endured through multiple conflicts, its continued relevance is now being questioned. Climate change is introducing unpredictable river flows that the treaty, designed for a stable hydrological world, may be ill-equipped to handle.
India currently faces increasing water stress, with annual demand exceeding 700 billion cubic metres (BCM) and projected to double to 1,500 BCM by 2030. This demand is largely driven by agriculture. However, the IWT’s structure limits India’s ability to fully address its water needs.
Uneven Distribution and Climate Impacts
Under the IWT, Pakistan controls approximately 80 percent of the Indus system’s waters, despite 40 percent of the basin’s catchment area being located within India. This imbalance is becoming more problematic as climate change causes increasingly erratic river flows. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, often called the ‘Third Pole’, is warming at nearly twice the global average, and Himalayan glaciers could lose up to 75 percent of their volume by 2100. The Indus River Basin could experience water deficits of up to 50 percent during critical periods by 2030.
For India, where per capita water availability has already fallen below 1,500 cubic metres, these changes pose significant risks to food security, energy production, and economic growth. Unchecked water scarcity could reduce India’s GDP by up to 6 percent by 2050, according to NITI Aayog estimates.
Reimagining the Indus Waters Treaty
Modernizing the IWT requires acknowledging climate change as the primary driver of water insecurity in the Indus basin. The treaty, which assumes hydrological stability, is ill-equipped to address accelerated glacial retreat, erratic precipitation, and altered snowfall patterns. India’s reliance on groundwater, with annual extraction reaching 251 BCM—a quarter of global extraction—further exacerbates the situation.
The United Nations (UN) Watercourses Convention (2014) emphasizes “equitable and reasonable utilisation,” incorporating climatic, hydrological, and ecological considerations. This provides a framework for India to advocate for an evolution of the IWT to reflect contemporary realities.
Data and Adaptive Governance
A key weakness of the IWT is its reliance on historical hydrological averages. India should advocate for a data-rich, climate-sensitive monitoring framework that incorporates glacial melt dynamics, snowpack variability, and precipitation trends. Examples like the Rhine Basin, which embraces adaptive management through joint monitoring, and the Mekong Agreement, which incorporates periodic reviews, offer instructive models.
The IWT’s rigidity—its lack of provisions for periodic review or responses to climate-induced events—is a serious limitation. Modern agreements prioritize flexibility, and even within India, parliamentary committees have recommended reviewing water-sharing arrangements every 5–10 years.
To create a 21st-century framework, India must lead efforts to recalibrate allocations based on climate-adjusted needs, build a shared climate data architecture, and embed adaptive governance with built-in review mechanisms.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing treaty signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank, that allocates the waters of the Indus system.
Why is the treaty currently in abeyance?
The IWT is currently in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attacks in April 2025.
What are the primary concerns regarding the treaty’s future?
The primary concerns relate to the treaty’s ability to address climate change and its resulting impacts on water availability and flow patterns in the Indus basin.
How can a treaty designed for a predictable climate adapt to a future of increasing volatility and uncertainty?
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