The race to rule the ANC after Cyril — new numbers, new front-runners

Why the ANC’s 2027 Election Could Redefine South Africa’s Political Landscape

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent appearance at the ANC National General Council (NGC) signals a calm before a storm. With the party’s elective conference slated for 2027, the next leader will inherit a movement that is shrinking, bruised by corruption scandals and desperate for renewal.

The Membership Decline: “Better Fewer, But Better”

The ANC’s paid‑up membership has dropped from over 1.4 million in 2020 to just under 540 000 today. This slump mirrors the Reuters report on the party’s shrinking base and reflects a broader crisis of legitimacy.

Fewer members mean a more disciplined voting block, but also a narrower pool of emerging leaders. The party’s internal documents warn that “the era of state capture… eroded public trust,” underscoring the urgency of a clean‑slate revival.

Who Could Take the Helm? The Main Contenders

Three names dominate the current speculative poll landscape:

• Paul Mashatile – Deputy President and seasoned ANC lifer, praised for campaign strategy but tainted by patronage accusations.
• Fikile Mbalula – Former Transport Minister, enjoys strong grassroots support among ANC voters and a modest edge over Mashatile in recent Ipsos data.
• Kgosientsho Ramokgopa – Electricity Minister who helped end load‑shedding; popular among Daily Maverick readers yet lacking broad party backing.

Women’s League pressure could push Nomvula Mokonyane or Thoko Didiza into the race, although both face credibility hurdles – Mokonyane’s involvement in the Bosasa scandal and Didiza’s failed mayoral parachute in 2016.

Patrice Motsepe: The Outlier Billionaire

Even though the mining magnate publicly ruled out a candidacy, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) poll shows Motsepe leading general voters by five points over Mashatile. His wealth and CAF presidency make him a “wild card” that could reshape the contest if political ambitions shift.

Implications for Future Elections

Local elections have historically accelerated the ANC’s decline. An Ipsos winter‑2025 poll projects the party hovering around 40 % of the vote, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) closing the gap. The next president will need coalition‑building skills, as outright majorities grow unlikely.

Economic reforms – such as the Transnet turnaround and the stabilization of electricity supply – could become the new “vote‑winning” narrative, provided the leader can translate technical successes into palpable public benefits.

Strategic Recommendations for the Next ANC Leader

• Prioritize Transparency – Implement the Integrity Commission’s audit recommendations to rebuild public trust.
• Focus on Service Delivery – Leverage gains in energy and logistics to showcase tangible improvements for everyday South Africans.
• Amplify Women’s Representation – Position a capable female candidate to satisfy the Women’s League and tap into South Africa’s high female political participation.
• Engage the Youth – Use digital platforms and mobile outreach to reconnect with the younger electorate that feels alienated by traditional party structures.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the ANC’s next elective conference?

The party’s constitution schedules the elective conference for 2027.

Why has ANC membership fallen so dramatically?

Loss of public trust after state‑capture scandals, internal factionalism and a perceived lack of accountability have driven members away.

Can a woman become ANC president?

Yes. The Women’s League is actively lobbying for a female candidate, and both Nomvula Mokonyane and Thoko Didiza are being floated as possibilities.

What role does coalition politics play in South Africa’s future?

With the ANC likely unable to secure an absolute majority, future governments will depend on coalition agreements, making negotiation skills essential for any new leader.

What’s Next?

As the ANC grapples with internal reform and external electoral pressure, the identity of its next president will shape South Africa’s trajectory for years to come. Stay tuned to our coverage for real‑time updates on candidate positioning, poll shifts, and policy breakthroughs.