Trump and Netanyahu’s Iran Strategy: A Tightrope Walk Between Pressure and Negotiation
The United States and Israel are pursuing a strategy of intensified economic pressure on Iran, particularly targeting its oil exports to China, but a fundamental disagreement exists regarding the ultimate objective. While both nations agree on increasing the strain on Tehran, their visions for the endgame diverge sharply, raising concerns about escalating regional instability.
The Economic Squeeze: A 25% Tariff Threat
President Trump recently signed an executive order authorizing a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, a move directly aimed at curbing China’s substantial purchases of Iranian crude oil. This builds upon a strategy of “maximum pressure” intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table. China currently buys over 80 percent of Iranian oil, making its cooperation crucial to the success of this policy.
Divergent Endgames: Deal or Regime Change?
Despite the unified front on tactics, a significant rift exists between Trump and Netanyahu regarding the desired outcome. Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate a deal with Iran, stating, “Let’s give it a shot.” However, Netanyahu reportedly believes any agreement is futile and is pushing for a more aggressive approach, potentially aimed at regime change. Some analysts suggest this stance is a deliberate attempt to draw the US into a direct conflict with Tehran.
Diplomatic Channels Remain Open – For Now
Despite the hawkish rhetoric, the Trump administration continues to pursue diplomatic avenues. Oman recently hosted indirect negotiations between US and Iranian officials, and a second round of talks is scheduled in Geneva, Switzerland, with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The US proposal reportedly involves a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment and the removal of a portion of Iran’s highly enriched uranium.
Israel’s Expanding Demands and the Pursuit of War
Netanyahu is advocating for expanding the scope of any potential deal to include limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program and severing ties with regional proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Experts suggest these demands are intentionally unrealistic, designed to sabotage diplomatic efforts. Mohannad Mustafa, an expert on Israeli affairs, stated that Israel’s insistence on these conditions is a calculated move to ensure diplomacy fails, positioning war as the only remaining option.
Exploiting Regional Tensions: The West Bank and Gaza
While the world focuses on the potential for conflict with Iran, Palestinian leaders warn that Israel is leveraging the heightened tensions to advance its agenda in the occupied West Bank and Gaza. This includes accelerating annexation policies and potentially enacting mass expulsions.
Annexation Under the Cover of Conflict
Recent Israeli cabinet decisions have made it easier to seize Palestinian lands for settlement expansion, a major obstacle to a two-state solution. The focus on Iran serves as a distraction from these accelerating annexation policies. Liqa Makki, a senior researcher, suggests a potential US-Iran conflict would provide the “perfect cover” for mass expulsions and a complete reshaping of the West Bank.
Far-Right Ambitions and Population Transfer
Senior members of Netanyahu’s coalition, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, have openly called for the “voluntary migration” of Palestinians and the re-establishment of settlements in Gaza. Smotrich has even denied the existence of a Palestinian people.
Nuclear Double Standards and the Palestinian Perspective
The renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear program has sparked debate about Western double standards, given Israel’s undeclared nuclear arsenal. Critics argue that Israel’s possession of 200 nuclear warheads is overlooked while Iran’s enrichment activities are met with intense scrutiny.
A Broader Context of Violence and Displacement
Since October 2023, Israel’s actions in Gaza have resulted in over 72,000 Palestinian deaths and widespread destruction. In the West Bank, hundreds more Palestinians have been killed, and over 40,000 have been displaced. Palestinian leaders argue that the narrative of an existential threat from Iran obscures the ongoing violence and dispossession faced by the Palestinian people.
Is Diplomacy Truly an Option?
Israel appears to be rejecting diplomacy in favor of fundamentally reshaping the Middle East through force. The objective is not simply disarmament but a change in regime in Iran, which Netanyahu has described as the “head of the octopus” coordinating regional conflict. However, recent setbacks for Iran’s allies have weakened its “Axis of Resistance.”
FAQ
- What is the main point of contention between the US and Israel regarding Iran?
- The US is open to negotiating a deal with Iran, while Israel believes any agreement is futile and is pushing for a more aggressive approach.
- What is the significance of the 25% tariff?
- The tariff is aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports, particularly to China, as part of a “maximum pressure” strategy.
- What are Israel’s concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence?
- Israel is concerned about Iran’s support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and its ballistic missile program.
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