A planned US-Saudi Arabia civilian nuclear agreement could trigger a dangerous regional arms race and leave Washington deeply entangled in an escalating Middle East conflict, according to former Israeli consul in Los Angeles Yaki Dayan. Speaking in a radio interview on Thursday with 103FM’s Barak Seri and Eli Ohana, Dayan warned that the pact grants Riyadh potential independent uranium enrichment capabilities while US President Donald Trump navigates a high-stakes standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Saudi Nuclear Agreement Terms and Enrichment Risks
The proposed nuclear pact differs sharply from past regional agreements, such as the 2009 deal signed with the United Arab Emirates, according to Dayan. While the UAE remains barred from independent uranium enrichment on its own soil, the reported terms for Saudi Arabia establish a different framework. Under the arrangement outlined by Dayan, Riyadh faces a two-year trial period, after which Washington could authorize domestic enrichment. If denied, a ten-year veto period follows before the Saudis can revisit the issue.
Dayan warned during his interview that granting Saudi Arabia this capability would inevitably prompt neighboring nations to follow suit. “If the Saudis receive independent enrichment capability, the Turks will come and say, ‘We want it too,’ and the Egyptians will say the same,” Dayan told 103FM.
Did you know?
Unlike the 2009 framework established with the United Arab Emirates, the new proposal for Saudi Arabia includes a structured path that could allow domestic uranium enrichment after an initial trial period, according to diplomatic analysis shared by Yaki Dayan.
Economic Motivations and Congressional Pushback
Financial incentives are driving the diplomatic push from the White House, Dayan argued. He stated that US President Donald Trump views the initiative primarily as a massive commercial transaction that will net tens of billions of dollars for American corporations. “This has been in the works for quite a few months,” Dayan said. “Trump wants to close as many deals as possible for as much money as possible.”
Despite expected opposition in Washington, the agreement faces a low threshold for final enactment due to presidential veto powers. Dayan noted that even if Congress votes to reject the pact, the president can issue a veto that requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate to override. Given the deep partisan divide, securing that margin remains unlikely. “It’s clear there is no two-thirds majority for anything in Congress today. The Democrats oppose it,” Dayan said.
The Escalation Trap in the Strait of Hormuz
Beyond the nuclear file, Dayan criticized the administration’s broader strategy regarding Iran, asserting that initial military objectives remain unfulfilled. He pointed out that Trump entered the current confrontation with a direct promise to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, a mission that has not been completed. Instead, the focus has shifted to reopening the critical shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Dayan, diplomatic channels involving regional intermediaries like Qatar and Pakistan have offered cease-fire frameworks to resolve the maritime crisis. He stated that international mediators recently floated a ten-day cessation of hostilities to secure the strait, but Trump has resisted returning to those terms. “He’s already been through that,” Dayan noted, explaining that the administration now finds itself boxed in by rising domestic political pressures.
Political Fallout and Domestic Pressures in the US
The protracted confrontation carries heavy domestic political risks as the midterm elections approach, according to Dayan’s analysis. Rising oil prices and an economy dominated by foreign policy crises are energizing Republican concerns about congressional losses. Political advisers and party allies are warning that a failure to pivot back to cost-of-living issues could cost the party control of the House and Senate.
“That’s why he’s in an escalation trap – because he currently has no way out. Before he can deal with Iran’s nuclear program, he first has to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” Dayan concluded, emphasizing the narrow margins currently facing the White House.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main concerns regarding the US-Saudi nuclear agreement?
Former Israeli diplomat Yaki Dayan warns that the deal could spark a regional nuclear arms race by eventually permitting Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium independently, which might prompt similar demands from Turkey and Egypt.
How does the new Saudi deal compare to the UAE agreement?
Unlike the 2009 UAE agreement, which strictly prohibits domestic uranium enrichment, the Saudi arrangement reportedly includes a two-year trial period and a potential pathway to local enrichment after a subsequent review window.
Why does Yaki Dayan say Trump is in an escalation trap?
Dayan argues that Washington is locked into an escalating confrontation with Iran without a clear exit strategy, struggling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while facing intense domestic pressure over rising oil prices and upcoming midterm elections.
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