President Donald Trump is underwater in 39 states and every major battleground state one month before the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, according to Civiqs’ rolling online tracker. Based on 133,869 responses from registered voters collected between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026, the data shows a national approval rating of 34 percent and a disapproval rating of 60 percent. Other recent surveys show varying results: a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Sept. 21 recorded a record low of 32 percent approval, while an American Research Group survey of 1,100 people put it at 29 percent. An Emerson College poll from Sept. 24 found 39 percent approval.
Every Major Battleground State Records Negative Net Approval Ratings
The tracker indicates that every major battleground state has a negative net approval rating. Georgia leads these with -25, followed by Michigan and Nevada at -24, and Pennsylvania at -22.
Trump maintains positive ratings in 10 states, primarily in Republican-leaning areas. Wyoming is the strongest at +18, followed by North Dakota (+15) and West Virginia (+12). Other positive states include Arkansas (+9), Idaho (+8), Alabama (+6), South Dakota (+5), Oklahoma (+4), Kansas (+3), and Utah (+2). Montana is the only state where approval and disapproval are tied at 46 percent.
Approval has declined in every state since January 20, 2025. The most significant drop occurred in Kentucky, which fell 33 points from +23 to -10. Even in his strongest state, Wyoming, approval dropped from +47 to +18. North Dakota fell from +34 to +15, and West Virginia dropped from +35 to +12.
Young Voters and Postgraduates Report Lowest Approval Levels
The data shows significant divides across demographics. Approval is lowest among voters aged 18 to 34 (20 percent) and postgraduates (24 percent). Among those aged 18 to 34, 73 percent disapprove.
Economic frustration is a primary driver of dissatisfaction. An AP-NORC poll found that 65 percent of adults believe higher-than-usual prices result from Trump’s policies, and 69 percent say his handling of the cost of living is worse than expected. Additionally, 68 percent of Americans disapprove of his trade negotiations, and 64 percent believe his new tariffs have gone too far. The AP-NORC survey, conducted Sept. 24-28, 2026, among 2,140 adults, also found that 73 percent of adults think the country is heading in the wrong direction.
While Trump has claimed the economy is the greatest in history, 73 percent of Americans view the economy as being in fair or poor shape, with 48 percent calling it poor. Gas prices have risen roughly 50 percent since the war against Iran began, averaging $4.47 per gallon. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fuel oil prices rose 52 percent over the last year, while ground beef rose 7.2 percent and electricity rose 3.8 percent. The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates due to inflation concerns. Darrick Hamilton, chief economist for the AFL-CIO, called Trump’s economic claims bluster
and gaslighting
.
Midterm Election Outlook
Analysts suggest these ratings create a difficult environment for Republicans. While presidential approval is not a direct forecast, it influences campaign messaging and turnout. Some analysts project a “Blue wave” that could see Democrats take control of Congress. One analysis stated, This election has all of the hallmarks of a big blue wave
.
The impact on GOP candidates varies. Some candidates may be harmed among independents due to their association with the president. Regarding the effect on competitive races, Fox News’ Decision Desk analyst Shaw stated, A lot of Republicans are walking around with a weighted vest because of Trump’s low approval numbers
.
The White House claims the administration has made historic progress
and that this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect
. Shaw noted that if the average across reputable polls reaches 35-36%, it presents a challenging environment broadly for Republicans
.