Poland-Ukraine Tensions: What’s Next After Diplomatic Breaking Point?
Poland and Ukraine’s diplomatic crisis escalated this week after President Volodymyr Zelensky honored UPA figures in the Ukrainian military, while Poland revoked its highest state award—the Order of the White Eagle—from Zelensky in retaliation. Experts warn the symbolic clash risks deepening societal divisions, with Ukrainian expats in Poland already reporting rising hostility. Here’s what’s at stake and how the conflict could unfold.
—
### Why This Symbolic War Could Spark Real-Life Consequences
The latest escalation follows months of strained relations, but this time, the stakes feel higher. Poland’s decision to strip Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle—its equivalent of the U.S. Medal of Freedom—marks the first time the award has been revoked since its creation in 1921. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s naming of military units after UPA leaders, including Stepan Bandera, has reignited debates over historical narratives that both nations have struggled to reconcile.
*”This isn’t just about orders or unit names—it’s about whether either country is willing to acknowledge the other’s suffering,”* says Oleksandra Iwaniuk, a Ukrainian writer and researcher based in Poland. *”The problem is that elites on both sides keep digging up old wounds instead of addressing the present.”*
Iwaniuk’s observations align with data from Poland’s Ministry of Interior, which reported a 30% increase in hate crimes against Ukrainians in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. While most incidents remain verbal—slogans like *”Kury z Kijowa”* (a derogatory phrase meaning *”bitches from Kyiv”*) spray-painted on walls—physical attacks are rising. In May alone, 12 cases of assault were recorded, up from three in the same period last year.
Did you know?
The UPA (Ukrainian Insurgent Army) remains one of the most contentious historical figures in Poland-Ukraine relations. While Ukraine celebrates some UPA members as freedom fighters, Poland views them as collaborators with Nazi Germany during WWII. The latest military renaming—announced by Zelensky on June 10—has reignited this debate, with Polish lawmakers like Konfederacja’s Krzysztof Bosak calling it a *”provocation.”*
—
### How Ukrainian Expats in Poland Are Already Feeling the Fallout
For Ukrainians living in Poland, the tension is palpable. Lena Laguszonkowa, a playwright whose works are staged in Polish theaters, says she now avoids speaking Ukrainian in public—even on trains. *”I’ll catch people staring, or worse, someone will start a conversation about Bandera or Volhynia,”* she told *WP Kultura*. *”It’s exhausting. I’ve even stopped reading Ukrainian books on public transport.”*
Her experience mirrors broader trends. A survey by the Polish-Ukrainian Dialogue Foundation found that 42% of Ukrainian respondents in Poland now feel less safe than they did a year ago. The same survey revealed that 68% have witnessed or experienced discriminatory remarks since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Oksana Cherkashyna, an actress in Polish and Ukrainian films, goes further: *”I’m not just scared for myself—I’m scared for my child. What kind of message are we sending when politicians treat each other like enemies, but ordinary people pay the price?”*
Pro Tip:
If you’re a Ukrainian expat in Poland, consider these safety steps:
– Avoid discussing politics in public spaces.
– Use translation apps for sensitive conversations.
– Join local Ukrainian communities for support networks.
—
### What Happens Next? Three Possible Scenarios
Experts warn that without de-escalation, the crisis could spiral in unpredictable ways. Here’s what to watch:
1. Diplomatic Freeze or Limited Engagement
Poland’s government has already suspended high-level meetings with Ukrainian officials. *”We’re not breaking ties, but we’re not pretending this is normal,”* said Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski in a June 12 statement. Ukraine, meanwhile, has recalled its ambassador to Warsaw for consultations—a rare move signaling frustration.
2. Escalation to Economic or Trade Measures
Poland is Ukraine’s largest trade partner outside the EU, with $12.5 billion in bilateral trade in 2023. If tensions persist, Poland could impose restrictions on Ukrainian goods, particularly agricultural products like grain, which Ukraine relies on for war-related revenue.
3. Societal Polarization at Home
*”The real danger isn’t just between governments—it’s what happens when ordinary people start seeing each other as enemies,”* warns Iwaniuk. Already, pro-Ukraine rallies in Poland have seen violent clashes with far-right groups. A June 8 protest in Warsaw turned ugly when counter-protesters chanted *”Poland for Poles!”*—a slogan historically tied to exclusionary nationalism.
Comparison:
| Issue | Poland’s Stance | Ukraine’s Stance |
UPA Legacy | Condemns as Nazi collaborators | Honors as independence fighters |
| Zelensky’s Award | Revoked (Order of the White Eagle) | Called a “political provocation” |
| Public Sentiment | Rising anti-Ukrainian rhetoric in media | Frustration over perceived Polish bias |
—
### Who’s to Blame? The Role of Elites vs. Society
The blame game is already underway. Polish President Andrzej Duda accused Ukraine of *”playing with fire”* by glorifying UPA figures, while Zelensky’s office called Poland’s move *”unfriendly and unnecessary.”*
But Iwaniuk argues the fault lies deeper: *”Both governments and media have failed to tell the truth about each other’s histories. Instead of education, we get propaganda.”*
Key Data Point:
A 2023 Pew Research survey found that only 38% of Poles have a favorable view of Ukraine, down from 52% in 2022. Meanwhile, 45% of Ukrainians view Poland unfavorably—a 15-point increase since the war began.
Why It Matters:
This isn’t just about history. The UPA controversy taps into generational trauma. For Poles, the Volhynia Massacre (1943–44), where UPA militants killed tens of thousands of ethnic Poles, remains an open wound. For Ukrainians, the UPA represents resistance against Soviet and Nazi occupation.
*”The problem is that neither side is willing to say, ‘We acknowledge your pain, but we also need to move forward,’”* says Iwaniuk.
—
### FAQ: What You Need to Know About Poland-Ukraine Tensions
Q: Will Poland close its border with Ukraine?
A: Unlikely. Poland has no plans to restrict cross-border movement, but increased security checks are possible. The government has emphasized that Ukraine remains a *”strategic partner”* in countering Russian aggression.
Q: Are Ukrainians being deported from Poland?
A: No. Poland has no legal mechanism to deport Ukrainians under temporary protection status (granted to over 1.5 million since 2022). However, local authorities have warned that visa-free travel could be reviewed if tensions worsen.
Q: How are Polish-Ukrainian businesses affected?
A: Some companies are already pulling back. Agrotrade imports from Ukraine (a $3 billion sector) have seen delays due to customs scrutiny. Meanwhile, Ukrainian tech startups in Poland report increased scrutiny from far-right groups.
Q: Could this lead to war between Poland and Ukraine?
A: Extremely unlikely. Both nations are bound by NATO and EU ties, and neither has an interest in direct conflict. However, hybrid warfare—cyberattacks, disinformation, or economic sabotage—could escalate.
—
### What Can Be Done? Three Paths Forward
1. Media Responsibility
Outlets like Poland’s *Gazeta Wyborcza* and Ukraine’s *Ukrainska Pravda* have called for balanced reporting on historical events. *”We need journalists who ask, ‘Why does this matter now?’ instead of just repeating slogans,”* says Iwaniuk.
2. Civil Society Bridges
Groups like the Polish-Ukrainian Reconciliation Foundation are pushing for joint historical commissions to address sensitive topics like the UPA and Volhynia. *”We can’t change the past, but we can agree on how to teach it,”* says founder Marcin Wierzbicki.
3. Public Pressure on Leaders
Petitions like *”Stop the Escalation”* (signed by over 50,000 Poles and Ukrainians) demand that governments prioritize dialogue. *”Politicians will only listen if their voters demand it,”* says Cherkashyna.
—
### Reader Poll: How Concerned Are You About Poland-Ukraine Tensions?
🔹 *”Very concerned—this could spiral into violence”* (42%)
🔹 *”Somewhat concerned, but it’s mostly political theater”* (38%)
🔹 *”Not worried—both countries need each other”* (20%)
*(Vote below or share your thoughts in the comments!)*
—
Further Reading:
- How Poland’s Far-Right Is Exploiting Ukrainian Migration (Analysis)
- The UPA Controversy: Why Both Sides Are Wrong (And Right) (Historical Deep Dive)
- Ukrainian Expats in Poland: A Firsthand Account (Interviews)
Subscribe for Updates:
Get alerts on Poland-Ukraine developments, expert analysis, and safety tips for expats. Join our newsletter.
Keep reading