One Nation holds 39 per cent voter support on immigration, matching the combined totals of Labor, the Coalition, and the Greens, according to late August polling from RedBridge. The finding coincides with the release of the party’s migration policy, which targets a reduction of more than 760,000 across temporary visa holders and net overseas migration.
Voter Polling and Political Shifts
Federal politics has shifted significantly since the May federal election last year. During that poll, the Coalition—which governed Australia for 20 out of the last 30 years—dropped to 43 lower house seats, marking its lowest proportion of seats since its founding in 1944. Amid the subsequent rise of One Nation in the polls, political analysts and commentators have explored various drivers behind the party’s ascent.
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RedBridge polling conducted in late August evaluated nine key issues to determine which party voters believe is best placed to manage them. One Nation stands alone on the rate of immigration, with 39 per cent of voters identifying the party as “best able to handle” the issue. Labor followed at 19 per cent, the Coalition at 15 per cent, and the Greens at 5 per cent. The combined support for Labor, the Coalition, and the Greens on immigration equals the 39 per cent held by One Nation. One Nation also placed first on crime and safety, securing a narrow three percentage point margin over competitors.
Proposed Migration Reductions and Visa Class Cuts
One Nation’s newly released migration plan aims to cut net overseas migration and temporary visa holders by more than 760,000. Department of Home Affairs data up to the end of July outlines specific reductions across major visa classes over a three-year period:
- Student visas: Set to drop by almost 240,000 from a snapshot figure of 589,900 to 350,000.
- Graduate visas: Expected to fall by just under 230,000, moving from 269,700 to 40,000.
- Temporary skilled visas: Reduced by 103,500 down to 160,000, compared to 263,500 previously.
- Bridging visas: Projected to fall by 112,500 down to 300,000, from a baseline of 412,500.
The plan also proposes the deportation of 80,000 unlawful non-citizens currently in the country.
In a recent press release, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson stated: “One Nation’s plan will return the temporary migrant population to around 2017 levels and the international student population to 2015 levels.” When compared against June figures for each year, the policy targets returning students to 2015 levels, graduates to 2016 levels, skilled visa holders to 2023 levels, and bridging visa holders to 2024 levels.
International Parallels With Canada and the United States
Senator Hanson has drawn comparisons between One Nation’s proposal and Canada’s migration policy. Canada reduced net migration from 1.23 million in the year to March 2024 to minus 217,800 in the year to March 2026. Both strategies rely on lowering temporary visa numbers to push net overseas migration into negative figures while maintaining permanent skilled and family intakes.
While Canada’s net overseas migration turned deeply negative, the Canadian government simultaneously pursued federal and provincial initiatives to increase numbers of doctors and healthcare professionals. Department data shows Canada’s temporary visa population has fallen by more than 590,000 since its peak in the December quarter of 2024. Concurrently, Canada’s asylum claim numbers rose from 161,100 in the March quarter of 2022 to 525,500 in data up to June 2026.
Broader international trends show similar shifts. According to estimates from the Brookings Institution, the United States may also pursue negative net overseas migration for the 2026 calendar year, with projections ranging from a high of 200,000 to a low of -900,000.
Future Outlook and Electorate Decisions
Debate surrounding the benefits and drawbacks of One Nation’s migration policy is expected to continue. While full details regarding the breakdown of the migration intake under a One Nation government have not yet been released, the underlying strategy mirrors actions taken in Canada under Prime Ministers Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney.
As the political debate unfolds, it will ultimately be up to the Australian electorate to decide whether Senator Hanson’s migration policy has got things right, or wrong.