US Midterms Could Reshape Global Relations With Trump Administration

Democratic Congressional Gains Shake Donald Trump’s Global Standing

The U.S. midterm elections have resulted in an emphatic defeat for President Donald Trump, triggering a wave of global reassessments regarding his administration’s future influence. Major newspapers worldwide used the words "stunning rebuke to Trump" in their headlines about the midterm vote for the U.S. Congress. The Democratic Party’s success in winning a majority of seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections has left President Donald Trump weakened, though it remains unclear how much this will change future legislation or curb his executive power.

Euronews reported that one European Union diplomat described the risk that Trump may act as a "mad dog" rather than a traditional "lame duck" president as he enters the final stretch of his term.

Shifts in Middle East Policy and Iran Relations

As European inflation rises due to the ongoing Iran conflict, the continent watches the Middle East with growing concern regarding future developments. Since the midterms have concluded, there is apprehension that the region could see renewed instability following Washington’s recent series of military strikes.

The economic impact of the ongoing war — including Iran largely blocking the vital Strait of Hormuz since the war began on 28 February, apart from a brief reopening in June — continues to drive up energy prices, Euronews reported. Meanwhile, the unpredictable situation in Israel continues, where Trump ally Benjamin Netanyahu is engaged in his own post-election horse-trading.

European Reactions to a Weakened U.S. Presidency

For many European capitals, the midterm results offer a sense of relief, though diplomats remain cautious about the reality of long-term U.S. policy. After a "rollercoaster of tariffs" and strained transatlantic ties, diplomats in Brussels were welcoming the results.

European leaders are particularly focused on the future of military support for Ukraine and the status of U.S. troops stationed on the continent. The Pentagon is currently reviewing its force posture in Europe, with results expected in December. Despite the change in Congressional control, EU officials emphasize that the assumption has taken hold that Europeans can no longer rely on the United States for their security, forcing European nations to prioritize self-reliance.

AEM_110326 Talarico Election Day
Photo: SBS

Congressional Power Shift Triggers Legal Inquiries

The shift in Congressional power creates new vulnerabilities for the president’s inner circle. With Democrats now holding the majority, there is heightened speculation regarding potential legal inquiries. Potential war crimes indictments may target individuals like Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, while Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, serving as Trump’s "special negotiators", could face scrutiny over commercial activities conducted while they were purportedly arranging peace deals globally.

The loss of institutional cover suggests that international partners and domestic allies may distance themselves from the administration as the political costs of alignment rise.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the midterm results change U.S. trade tariffs on Europe?
It remains unclear if the new Congressional majority can force a change. While Democrats may seek to address inflation by rolling back some measures, a recent Council on Foreign Relations poll found that only one-quarter of Americans support removing all tariffs on EU goods.

How does the current situation in Israel compare to the U.S. election?
Both nations have seen a push for change and defiance among opponents of populist rhetoric. In Israel, President Isaac Herzog — who will decide who gets to form a government — condemned the "vulgarity and racist expressions" heard recently, saying: "There is no place for such behaviour toward any community in Israel."

What is the status of the war in Ukraine following the midterms?
European officials, including EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, have expressed hope that the new Congress will continue to support Ukraine. However, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, stated that the Democratic leadership’s approach to relations with Moscow remains "sharply negative."