The rules-based order governing global commerce has given way to disorder due to an unpredictable United States trade policy under President Donald Trump, East Asia Forum reported.
Even after the US Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariffs in February 2026, the administration pursued every means to reintroduce them. A Section 301 investigation into forced labor concluded in July 2026, imposing 10 to 12.5 percent tariffs on 60 economies.
Investigators target structural excess capacity and transshipment hubs
The July 2026 measures affected most Southeast Asian countries, according to East Asia Forum. Investigators continue to target structural excess capacity.
An August 2026 White House report branded Southeast Asian nations as transshipment hubs for China. The document accused Chinese companies of using the region as a conduit following a nearly 30 percent increase in Southeast Asia exports to the United States in 2025.
Exporters pass costs to consumers as corporations weigh relocation
Exporters faced short-run choices between passing costs to consumers or cutting profit margins. Exporters opted for high or full pass-through, which increased prices for US buyers.
Multinational corporations also weighed long-run supply chain relocation. Southeast Asia benefited from relocation away from China during Trump 1.0 and 2.0, but future investments depend on US Customs enforcement.
ASEAN Trade Diversification Strategies
ASEAN countries intensified intra-regional cooperation and inter-regional trade agreements to reduce dependence on the United States. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership scheduled a General Review for 2027.
Trade Policy Questions and Answers
What tariffs replaced the struck-down reciprocal duties?
A Section 301 investigation into forced labor concluded in July 2026, placing 10 to 12.5 percent tariffs on 60 economies, East Asia Forum reported.
How did Southeast Asian exports perform before the White House report?
Southeast Asia’s exports to the United States grew by nearly 30 percent in 2025, according to data cited by East Asia Forum.
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