The West must prepare itself for a prolonged confrontation with Russia, according to Ivars Ijabs, a political analyst and member of the European Parliament representing For the Development of Latvia.
The Danger of Absolute Power
Ijabs suggests that dictator Vladimir Putin has fully identified himself with the state of Russia. This connection creates a volatile situation where the survival of the leader is equated with the survival of the nation.
This sentiment is echoed by Vyacheslav Volodin, the Chairman of the Russian State Duma, who stated that if Putin does not exist, Russia does not exist. Ijabs describes this dynamic as very dangerous, noting that Putin may be willing to ruin the entire world to maintain his power.
Potential for Systemic Shift
In the event of Putin’s sudden death, Ijabs believes Russia would most likely transition to a period of collective leadership. He notes that Putin has constructed a system where he stands at an unreachable distance above all others.
Under such a collective arrangement, Ijabs expects that certain individuals within the leadership may attempt to secure ahead of their peers to secure power.
Implications for Ukraine and Europe
A change in leadership could potentially lead to a more reasonable approach to negotiations with Ukraine. Ijabs asserts that the decision to start the war was Putin’s personal initiative.
a new leadership situation could make negotiations more realistic from the European perspective. Currently, Putin is viewed in Europe as a mass murderer, a description Ijabs affirms as accurate.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Ivars Ijabs suggest about the West’s approach to Russia?
He states that the West must be prepared for a long confrontation with the country.
What might happen to Russia’s leadership if Vladimir Putin were to die?
It is believed that Russia would most likely have a period of collective leadership, similar to the era following Joseph Stalin’s death, where some individuals may strive to get ahead of others.
How could a change in Russian leadership affect the war in Ukraine?
Because the war was Putin’s personal initiative, a new situation after his leadership could make Russia more reasonable in negotiations and make those negotiations more realistic for Europe.
How do you think a shift toward collective leadership would impact global stability?
