Gulf States Fear Escalation as US-Iran Tensions Reach Boiling Point
As a potential American attack on Iran looms, a growing sense of dread is gripping America’s allies in the Persian Gulf. These nations, hosting crucial U.S. Bases, are bracing for potential Iranian retaliation and are actively lobbying Washington to de-escalate the situation.
Staggering Military Buildup Fuels Fears of Prolonged Conflict
The scale of the U.S. Military mobilization is significant. At least 108 air tankers are currently in or en route to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) theater. This build-up suggests a potential operation that extends beyond a single strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, hinting at a more sustained and long-lasting campaign.
Regional Concerns: Chaos and the Rise of Israel
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iraq are primarily concerned about the potential for chaos and instability resulting from a conflict. While they may desire a weakening of the Iranian leadership, the prospect of a collapsed Iranian state is deeply unsettling. Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a Gulf analyst, noted that regional leaders fear a scenario of chaos and the possibility of more radical elements gaining power.
A key concern is the potential for an expansionist Israel to benefit from a weakened Iran. As Galip Dalay points out, Iran’s diminished power would remove a key counterweight to Israeli influence in the region, potentially leading to a shift in the regional balance of power.
Diplomatic Efforts to Avert War
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Turkey and Egypt have been engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to pull Washington and Tehran back from the brink. This isn’t driven by sympathy for Iran, but by the realization that they would be on the front lines of any retaliatory action.
Iraq’s Precarious Position
Predominantly Shi’a Iraq is particularly vulnerable. After decades of upheaval, Baghdad is desperate to avoid being drawn into a conflict. Smaller, hardline Shi’a groups might feel compelled to attack American troops in defense of Iran, while the main Shi’a political forces view a U.S.-Iran conflict on their soil as an existential threat to their fragile sovereignty. Tehran also recognizes the importance of a functional Iraq as a trade partner.
Direct Threats to Gulf Security
Iran has repeatedly signaled that U.S. Bases in the region are legitimate targets. The attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in June 2025, though without casualties, serves as a stark reminder of this threat. Iranian officials, including Ali Shamkhani, have suggested that any future response would be far more severe.
The 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities demonstrated Iran’s capability to strike critical infrastructure in the Gulf. With little to lose, the motivation to target countries hosting U.S. Military bases would likely increase in a full-scale conflict.
Economic and Humanitarian Consequences
Beyond direct military threats, a regional war would have devastating economic consequences. Diversification efforts and foreign investment would be jeopardized, and a potential refugee crisis looms, with the possibility of thousands of Iranians seeking refuge in neighboring countries like the UAE. The threat of closure, or even selective interdiction, of the Strait of Hormuz – through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes – could send global oil prices soaring and trigger inflation.
The Nuclear Risk: A Perverse Outcome
There is a heightened risk that a U.S. Military attack could ironically lead Iran to abandon its official nuclear doctrine and pursue weaponization. Without a full occupation, Iran possesses the know-how to develop a nuclear bomb should it choose to do so.
Gulf States Push Back
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have publicly expressed their opposition to using their airspace for an attack on Iran. Anwar Gargash, a key advisor to the UAE president, has called for a “long-term diplomatic solution” between Washington and Tehran.
Trump’s Approach and Iranian Concessions
Despite Iran offering concessions on the nuclear issue, including suspending enrichment and offering economic incentives, the Trump administration appears to be demanding complete capitulation, including concessions on ballistic missiles – a red line for Iran.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is CENTCOM’s role in this situation?
A: U.S. Central Command oversees U.S. Forces in the Middle East and is responsible for coordinating any potential military action against Iran.
Q: Why are Gulf states so concerned about a U.S. Attack on Iran?
A: They fear retaliation from Iran, regional instability, and the potential for a power vacuum that could be filled by an expansionist Israel.
Q: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why is it important?
A: The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes. Any disruption to traffic through the strait would have major global economic consequences.
Q: Is a diplomatic solution still possible?
A: Several countries are actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, but the prospects for a breakthrough remain uncertain.
Did you know? Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC) is preparing for a “smart” closure of the Strait of Hormuz, selectively targeting Western-linked tankers while allowing Chinese oil purchases to pass.
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