A historically strong El Niño climate pattern is driving forecasts for widespread dryness and elevated wildfire risks across New Zealand through the end of the year, according to Ben Brandolino.
El Niño Climate Outlook and Regional Rainfall Forecasts
New Zealand faces a prolonged dry spell driven by a major climate pattern, according to forecasts outlined by Ben Brandolino. Following a mid-August rainy period that brings a brief week of unusual wetness, persistent dryness is expected to dominate from late August through September, particularly across the North Island.
“From late August and into September, we will see more persistent dryness, particularly for the North Island,” Brandolino said, noting that western and lower South Island areas will likely buck that trend. Dryness will remain a theme through October and beyond for the upper North Island from Waikato northward, resulting in below-normal rainfall.
Brandolino advises trimming back vegetation now to reduce fire risks before peak drying occurs.
Wildfire Risks and Spiky Temperatures Driven by Foehn Winds
Brandolino warned of windy periods for western and lower parts of the South Island, which will also bring warmer temperatures.
Airflow patterns from Australia in September are expected to deliver “spiky temperatures” and unusually warm air. As this air mass crosses the Southern Alps, it creates a foehn effect, making the downwind eastern South Island significantly warmer and drier than the upwind side. These elevated temperatures, paired with strong winds and dry vegetation, substantially increase wildfire risks.
Global Intensity and Links to Northern Hemisphere Heatwaves
Forecasters indicate this El Niño event could rival the intensity of the six strongest events on the modern record, with Ben Noll noting on social media platform X that projected central Pacific Ocean temperatures could reach +4.1°C by December 2026, surpassing previous peaks of +2.8°C to +3.0°C recorded in 1877, 1997, and 2015.
This intensity connects directly to severe heatwaves currently impacting Europe and the wider Northern Hemisphere. Brandolino explained that heat from the ocean and atmosphere is being redistributed globally, meaning background temperature increases are driving hotter peak days. New Zealand can expect its own version of this temperature spikiness, though without reaching European extremes of 40°C to 44°C.
Did You Know?
No one alive has witnessed an El Niño event as strong as the one currently projected by meteorologists, with intensity measures threatening to dwarf the six major super El Niño events recorded since the late 19th century.
Agricultural Preparedness and Water Management
Communities relying directly on local water sources must prepare for extended dry conditions. Brandolino urged farmers and households dependent on tank water to establish concrete mitigation plans immediately.
“People in water-reliant sectors, like farmers or people on tank water, are going to have to start thinking about what dryness means for them,” Brandolino said. “It’s best to have a plan and not need it than need a plan and not have it.”
Frequently Asked Questions
How long will the dry conditions last in New Zealand?
Dryness is projected to be a dominant theme through October and beyond, with below-normal rainfall expected to persist across the upper North Island and eastern regions for the rest of the calendar year, according to Brandolino.
Which areas of New Zealand will receive normal or above-normal rainfall?
The western and lower South Island are expected to buck the national drying trend, experiencing a wetter-than-usual three-month period.
What causes the spiky temperatures during this weather pattern?
Airflow originating from Australia brings unusually warm air over the South Island. This air creates a foehn effect as it moves across the Southern Alps, making the eastern side significantly warmer and drier.
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