As the conflict with Iran reaches its seventh month, the United States is weighing a fundamental shift toward a periodic military strategy designed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open without plunging into a sustained, full-scale war, according to reports from Axios and statements from the White House.
The Pivot to Periodic Strikes and the ‘No War, No Peace’ Strategy
The United States may be adopting a “no war, no peace” strategy characterized by intermittent military strikes rather than continuous engagement, according to U.S. news outlet Axios. This potential shift follows a six-month timeline that began with a 40-day military campaign, transitioned into a fragile 60-day memorandum of understanding in June, and eventually broke down over vague wording regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Following a month-long lull in direct fighting, hostilities flared when U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island. According to Washington, its forces hit two Iranian rocket launchers which it claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was preparing to use to scatter sea mines into the strait.
In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at two airbases hosting US military personnel and assets in Jordan. Jordanian authorities confirmed they intercepted eight missiles, and no U.S. casualties were reported. President Donald Trump responded sharply to reporters, stating, “We’re going to hit them hard … there will be a response.” However, Trump maintained that the renewed exchanges do not signal a return to full-scale war, noting that Iran’s financial system, military, and leadership had been largely degraded.
Economic Pressure Campaign and Diverging Alliances
Alongside sporadic military actions, the Trump administration has ramped up economic measures against Tehran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic pressure campaign against Iran, declaring that it would target its financial interests across the world, which includes sanctions on 60 “entities” it claimed were facilitating Iranian oil sales and threats of secondary sanctions against third-party businesses.
Bessent argued that recent Iranian missile launches demonstrate that Tehran was “lashing out kinetically because they are losing economically”. Conversely, Iran’s Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati dismissed the assessment during a news conference, asserting that the nation retains sufficient foreign currency reserves and that claims of economic collapse were “incorrect”.
Meanwhile, the broader coalition shows signs of strain. While Washington seeks an exit strategy from the war, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing the economic and political costs of the conflict, as it heads towards midterm elections in November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains focused on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and has maintained a hard line in southern Lebanon, highlighting a divergence in allied priorities.
Assessing the Sustainability of Limited Warfare
Analysts question whether a strategy of periodic bombing can remain viable over the long term. Trita Parsi, director and cofounder of the US-based Quincy Institute, told Al Jazeera that intermittent strikes effectively amount to a “forever war,” suggesting the administration is leaning on permanent warfare to manage a problem it has not solved diplomatically or economically.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, dropping from about 100 ships a day to a daily average of seven through the war. Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, warned Al Jazeera that neither side can reliably control the escalation ladder, increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict if diplomatic channels remain frozen.
Did You Know?
Before the war began, the strait had been entirely and freely open to all shipping, before traffic slumped from about 100 ships a day to a daily average of seven through the war.
Frequently Asked Questions
What triggered the recent exchange of strikes between the US and Iran?
U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after observing preparations to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran launched missiles at two airbases hosting US military personnel and assets in Jordan.
What is the ‘no war, no peace’ strategy?
Reported by Axios, the strategy involves Washington potentially switching to a new strategy in the conflict in which it aims to hit Iran periodically without engaging in a sustained conflict to keep moving oil tankers out of the Gulf region safely.
How is the US targeting Iran’s economy?
The U.S. Treasury Department has announced an economic pressure campaign targeting Iran’s financial interests across the world, including its revenue sources such as oil, sanctioning 60 entities facilitating Iranian oil sales, and threatening secondary sanctions.
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