About 50 million ballots have already been cast ahead of Tuesday’s election, with early turnout outpacing the last midterm cycle in every major Senate battleground.
Early Turnout Outpaces 2022 Senate Battlegrounds
In every Senate battleground tracked through Monday morning, the number of early ballots cast has already surpassed the total early vote from 2022. That year trailed only 2018 for total turnout in a midterm election. When looking at Texas, South Carolina, and Maine, the volume of early participation matches levels more commonly associated with the 2024 presidential contest.
Democrats traditionally show higher participation before Election Day than Republicans, making their early advantage expected. However, the partisan makeup of the electorate in several key states is even more Democratic than it was in 2024. In Georgia, where voters do not register with a political party, estimates rely on party primary participation.
Did You Know? Participation levels during advance voting in Texas, South Carolina, and Maine bear a stronger resemblance to the 2024 presidential election than a typical cycle.
Black voter share grows in advance voting across southern states
Black voters make up a larger share of the advance vote in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina compared to recent cycles. In North Carolina, Black voters accounted for 21 percent of early votes cast through October 31, which was only a couple of percentage points higher than it was in 2022 and 2024. Kamala Harris won between 87 and 90 percent of Black voters in each of these three states during 2024, according to Times Voter Trends.
Age demographics in early voting have also shifted as Election Day approaches. In Michigan, the median age of early voters is 67. However, younger voters surged in the final weeks, with those under 45 accounting for 30 percent of ballots cast in the past week compared to just 11 percent four weeks prior.
Expert Insight: While early voting data reveals critical clues about subgroup participation and demographic shifts, extrapolating total turnout or final election outcomes from advance ballots remains unreliable due to changing voter habits on Election Day.
Surging Turnout in Hispanic Texas Counties
Texas early turnout through October 30 ran just 15 percent behind the 2024 presidential pace, with nearly eight million Texans casting ballots so far. Of the eight counties running ahead of their 2024 totals, seven are more than 70 percent Hispanic. A recent New York Times/Siena poll showed James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for Senate, leading among Hispanic voters by 38 percentage points.
Despite the high engagement in Hispanic counties, large South Texas areas like Hidalgo and Starr Counties saw record-breaking turnout paired with massive Republican gains in 2020 and 2024, resulting in Donald J. Trump flipping many of them two years ago.
Early ballots surpass total 2022 midterm turnout across battlegrounds
How does early turnout this year compare to 2022?
In every Senate battleground tracked, the number of early ballots cast has already surpassed the total number of early ballots cast during the 2022 midterm cycle.
What share of the early vote did Black voters make up in North Carolina?
Black voters in North Carolina accounted for 21 percent of early votes cast through October 31, which was a couple of percentage points higher than in 2022 and 2024.
How many Texans have cast ballots ahead of Election Day?
Nearly eight million Texans have cast their ballots thus far, rapidly approaching the total turnout of 2022.
Which demographic group’s late-voting surge do you think will have the greatest impact on Tuesday’s final results?
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