Between September 2026 and February 2027, South Africa is projected to record 1 200 excess heat-related deaths driven by a developing super El Niño, according to data from the Climate Impact Lab.
Global Toll and Regional Impacts of the Super El Niño
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab forecasts more than 451 000 excess heat deaths during the first nine months of the El Niño event, running from June 2026 through February 2027. That figure is roughly 65 times the death toll of recent flash floods in Nepal, according to the consortium’s analysis. Of that total, 239 000 additional deaths are expected to occur within the specific six-month window from September 2026 to February 2027. The heaviest regional burden falls on the African Sahel, where 66 800 additional heat-related deaths are projected during that same six-month period. CNN reported that Nigeria faces the highest single-country toll with 31,400 projected deaths, while Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil also face high risks.
Meteorological Forecasts and Local Warnings in South Africa
South Africans are entering what Professor Willem Landman, a meteorologist at the University of Pretoria, described to News24 as “the mother of all El Niños.” El Niño occurs every two to seven years when the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms. Francois Engelbrecht, distinguished professor of climatology at the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand, explained to News24 that this Pacific warming disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has previously stated that 2027 could be the warmest year ever recorded as the country faces the strongest El Niño event in living memory. Dr. Christien Engelbrecht, lead scientist for long-range forecasting at SAWS, noted in the latest seasonal prediction that regional temperature forecasts indicate very high probabilities for above-normal temperatures throughout the summer. Rudzani Malala, senior manager for disaster risk reduction at SAWS, urged the public to closely follow impact-based weather forecasts and warnings.
Methodology and Limitations of the Mortality Projections
The mortality projections combine peer-reviewed methods analyzing the relationship between temperature and mortality across more than 24,000 regions worldwide with seasonal temperature forecasts, measured against an average baseline between 1996 and 2025. While the report has not yet undergone peer review, its authors released the findings early due to the rapid strengthening of the weather event. Michael Greenstone, a report author, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and economics professor at the University of Chicago, emphasized to CNN that while the figures can feel numbing, they represent real individuals and communities. Raquel Nunes, associate professor in health and environment at the University of Warwick who was not involved in the study, told CNN that the 451,000 deaths estimate is plausible as a modeling exercise, though she noted it should not be viewed as a definitive prediction but rather as a highlight of the urgent need for preparedness against El Niño-driven extreme heat.
Did you know?
Heat is documented by researchers as the most deadly form of extreme weather, though heat-related fatalities remain under-tracked even in wealthy nations, according to findings from the Climate Impact Lab.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a super El Niño?
A strong El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise 1.5°C above normal over a three-month period. A very strong event reaches 2°C above normal, while current forecasts indicate the present event may exceed 3°C.
How many excess deaths are projected for South Africa?
The Climate Impact Lab projects 1 200 excess heat-related deaths in South Africa between September 2026 and February 2027.
Are these projections peer-reviewed?
The specific El Niño mortality report is awaiting peer review, but it utilizes established, peer-reviewed methodology relating temperature data to mortality across thousands of global regions.
Which global regions are most affected?
The Global South bears the heaviest burden, with heavy mortality tolls projected across the African Sahel, Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil.
Stay informed on severe weather updates and climate trends. Subscribe to our newsletter or leave a comment below to join the discussion on local disaster preparedness.
Worth a look