Lebanon President Says Working on ‘Permanent Agreements’ After Israel Truce

Beyond the Ceasefire: Is Lebanon Finally Breaking the Cycle of Proxy War?

For decades, Lebanon has been described as the “Switzerland of the East,” but the reality on the ground has been far more volatile. The country has long served as a geopolitical chessboard where regional powers—primarily Iran and Israel—play out their conflicts. However, a seismic shift is occurring.

With the recent push toward “permanent agreements” and a declared intent to reclaim state authority, Lebanon is attempting something unprecedented: transitioning from a state of managed conflict to a state of genuine sovereignty.

The Sovereignty Shift: State Authority vs. Militia Power

The central tension in Lebanon has always been the “state within a state.” For years, Hezbollah maintained a sophisticated military wing under the guise of “resistance,” effectively bypassing the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). This duality created a dangerous precedent where the government held the title of power, but the militia held the trigger.

The current trend suggests a pivot toward centralized security. By committing to disarm non-state actors and banning unauthorized military activities, the Lebanese government is attempting to monopolize the use of force—a fundamental requirement for any functioning sovereign state.

Why This Time Might Be Different

Unlike previous attempts at disarmament, the current momentum is backed by a combination of extreme domestic exhaustion and high-level international pressure. When a population has faced mass displacement and economic collapse, the appetite for “eternal resistance” often gives way to a desire for stability.

We can observe a parallel in the Post-WWII reconstruction of Europe, where former combatants were integrated into a centralized state framework to prevent the resurgence of paramilitary violence. For Lebanon, the challenge is ensuring that the LAF is sufficiently funded and equipped to fill the vacuum left by Hezbollah.

The ‘Grand Bargain’ Blueprint: From Maritime Borders to Land Peace

The path to a permanent agreement isn’t happening in a vacuum. It follows a specific diplomatic blueprint: starting with technical, non-political wins and scaling up to political treaties.

A prime example is the 2022 maritime border agreement. By focusing on economic interests (gas and oil) rather than ideological disputes, Lebanon and Israel proved that pragmatic cooperation is possible even without formal recognition. This “economic first” approach is now being applied to land borders and security arrangements.

The Internal Friction: The Risk of Sectarian Backlash

Despite the optimistic rhetoric of “permanent agreements,” the road to peace is fraught with internal landmines. Lebanon’s sectarian system means that any move to disarm one group is often viewed by its supporters as an existential threat to their community.

If the government pushes too hard or too fast without offering political guarantees to the Shia community, the risk of internal strife increases. The goal is to move from a militia-based security model to a citizenship-based security model.

For more on how regional powers influence local governance, check out our analysis on the evolution of proxy warfare in the Levant or explore the Council on Foreign Relations for deep dives into Middle East stability.

Future Trends to Watch

• The Professionalization of the LAF: Expect an increase in Western military aid to the Lebanese Army to ensure it can secure the entire territory exclusively.
• Economic Integration: A permanent peace deal would likely be followed by an influx of foreign investment, particularly in infrastructure and energy, as the “war risk” premium drops.
• Diplomatic Normalization: While full normalization remains a distant goal, we may see the establishment of “liaison offices” to manage border disputes and prisoner exchanges.

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