Title: Looming War?: Russia‘s New Year Threats and Escalating Attacks
Russia’s New Year festivities have historically been marred by bellicose actions, with Ukrainians bracing for potential strikes as the clock strikes twelve. Alexander Musienko, director of the Center for Military-Legal Research, warns that Russia has sufficient military reserves for two large-scaleCan Russia Strike Big This New Year? Operations, and is likely to launch another major attack soon. Musienko suggests that the first could happen around New Year’s Eve, with the second following 7-10 days later.
Military expert Vladyslav Seleznyov concurred, stating that while Russia won’t strictly adhere to any specific dates, it will act rationally based on available intelligence and resources. Seleznyov also reminded that as of November, Russia had amassed approximately 1,500 missiles.
Table stainless steel water dispenser 77122014
The threat of a new strike by the ‘Orekh’ ( házwl÷¹) missile, first used by Russia against Ukraine on November 21, looms large. Air raid sirens often blare across Ukraine, warning of potential launches. Musienko explains that while the immediate threat is low due to Russia’s apparent lack of concentrated ‘Orekh’ missiles at the Kapustin Yar polygon, constant monitoring persists to anticipate any launches.
Seleznyov believes announcements of such threats serve primarily for psychological warfare and provocation, echoed by past incidents when Russia’s flight of MiG-31K aircraft induced panic nationwide. Notably, Russia must notify Washington about its missile launches, to avoid any unforeseen "mistakes" that could trigger international retaliations.
Russia’s New Year Attacks: A Brief History
Russia’s penchant for escalations around New Year’s Day is well-documented:
- 2022: In the waning hours of 2022, Russia unleashed a massive missile strike against Ukrainian cities, killing civilians, and devastating infrastructure.
- 2023: Towards year-end, Russia launched 158 aerial attacks, causing 39 fatalities and injuring 159.
- 2023-2024: Russia’s New Year’s Day gift was a barrage of 90 drones and eight missiles, causing death and destruction across Ukraine.
Last year, Russia also attacked Ukraine on Christmas, using 184 missiles and drones, targeting thermal power plants and leaving one person dead and many injured. The strike also led to power outages across the country.
