Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has publicly expressed disappointment following his party’s defeat in the Makerfield by-election, where candidate Robert Kenyon secured 15,696 votes. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won the seat with 24,927 votes, while the newly formed Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, polled 3,111 votes in its first parliamentary outing. Mr. Farage has since issued a direct appeal to voters who supported Restore Britain to reconsider their allegiance to his party.
Did You Know? Rupert Lowe, the leader of Restore Britain, is a former Reform UK MP who was removed from the party following a personal falling out with Nigel Farage in March 2025.
Why the Makerfield result matters for the right
The by-election outcome has sparked a debate regarding the potential for vote-splitting on the right. While Mr. Farage attributed his party’s failure to capture the seat partly to the presence of Restore Britain, which he claimed drew away “a couple of thousand” potential Reform voters, Mr. Lowe rejected these concerns. According to Mr. Lowe, who spoke with GB News, votes do not belong to any specific party, and he argued that the electoral outcome in Makerfield would not have changed for Reform UK even if all Restore Britain supporters had backed Mr. Kenyon.
Expert Insight: The emergence of Restore Britain presents a strategic challenge for Reform UK as it attempts to consolidate its position as the primary challenger to the Labour government. While Reform UK maintains a significant national presence, polling data from More in Common suggests that even a seven percent vote share for a splinter group could make it mathematically difficult for Reform to secure a parliamentary majority in future general contests.
What may happen next for Reform UK
Following the results in Makerfield and additional third-place finishes in the Aberdeen South and Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-elections, the party faces pressure to reclaim its momentum. Mr. Farage maintains that Reform UK remains the dominant force on the centre-right, noting that Conservative support in the North of England, Midlands, and South Wales has dwindled to roughly two percent in recent by-elections. However, analysts such as Luke Tryl of More in Common have characterized the recent results as the party’s “worst night since the general election,” suggesting that if the trend of vote-splitting persists, Reform UK may struggle to convert its national polling into legislative seats.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many votes did Reform UK receive in the Makerfield by-election?
Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate, received 15,696 votes.
Why did Nigel Farage address Restore Britain voters directly?
Mr. Farage stated that he was disappointed with the result, suggesting that Restore Britain drew away a portion of the electorate that would have otherwise voted for Reform UK.
Did Restore Britain affect the outcome of the Makerfield election?
According to data from the count, Reform UK would have fallen short of defeating Andy Burnham even if all 3,111 votes cast for Restore Britain had instead gone to the Reform candidate.
How do you think the emergence of smaller, single-issue parties will influence the stability of the main political parties in the coming years?
