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“The stunning Republican defeat in the United States midterm elections has changed the political landscape in Washington,” says Exporters Western Cape chair Terry Gale, as the Democratic Party takes control of both houses of Congress. Following Tuesday’s election, Democrats secured 54 seats in the 100-seat Senate and claimed at least 245 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives as votes were tallied by Thursday morning, 5 November. President Donald Trump, who urged voters to treat the ballot as a referendum on his leadership, faced a severe rebuke as voters ousted numerous handpicked candidates. The shift in congressional power has sparked intense debate in South Africa over whether Pretoria can repair bilateral ties frayed during the current presidential term.
South African officials react to Washington power shift
South African officials have expressed varied responses to the dramatic turnover in Washington. President Cyril Ramaphosa seems to think that the Democratic victory could help improve relations between Pretoria and Washington. Meanwhile, ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula declared himself elated by the Republican losses, telling journalists that Trump had been very nasty toward South Africa.
John Steenhuisen, deputy minister of trade, industry and competition, described the outcome as the biggest Republican defeat since Watergate and a complete repudiation of the MAGA movement. Steenhuisen argued that the political shift gives South Africa an opportunity to secure a more sympathetic hearing from Democrats who will now chair key committees like the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee.
Did You Know? Washington is required by the African Growth and Opportunity Act to provide a 60 days’ notice period before dropping a participant from the trade scheme, creating a brief window for South Africa to attempt a reversal ahead of 1 January 2027, when the exclusion goes into effect.
Trade Relations and the Future of Agoa
The political change in Washington intersects directly with South Africa’s trade status under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. In an announcement earlier this week, the Office of the US Trade Representative pointed to foreign policy issues alongside trade and investment barriers as reasons to strip South Africa and Rwanda of their Agoa benefits starting 1 January 2027. Minister of Parks Tau noted that Agoa exports accounted for about $1.7-billion in 2025, down from $4-billion in 2024, representing roughly 10% of South African exports to the US and about 1% of total global exports.
Bob Wekesa, director of the African Centre for the Study of the US at Wits University, argued that skilful diplomacy gives South Africa a credible chance to use the Democratic majority to rescind the removal. However, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos of the SA Institute of International Affairs and Joshua Meservey of the Hudson Institute cautioned that eligibility decisions ultimately rest with the president, making a direct congressional reversal unlikely. Steenhuisen suggested that South Africa should instead pursue a conventional reciprocal free trade agreement to avoid ongoing uncertainty in agriculture and manufacturing.
Expert Insight: While a Democratic-controlled Congress alters committee oversight and increases scrutiny on executive trade policies, foreign policy authority remains largely concentrated in the White House, meaning that trade relief will require careful diplomatic navigation despite legislative shifts.
Analysts debate lame duck presidential foreign policy focus
Political analysts and trade experts remain divided on how a lame-duck president will handle his final two years. Professor Richard Calland suggested on 702 that fighting with Pretoria might slip down Trump’s agenda as economic concerns at home dominate. Conversely, political scientists Daniel W. Drezner and Elizabeth N. Saunders warned in Foreign Affairs that boxed-in presidents facing domestic investigations often turn to international arenas where they face fewer constraints.
Right-wing groups in South Africa also offered contrasting interpretations of the election outcome. Ernst Roets of Lex Libertas argued that the Trump administration would continue to draw international attention to local crises, while AfriForum CEO Kallie Kriel maintained that the impact on bilateral relations would be limited due to executive control over foreign policy.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the shift in power in the United States Congress?
Voters delivered a stern rebuke to President Donald Trump and his divisive agenda during Tuesday’s midterm elections, handing control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives to the Democratic Party amid rising cost-of-living concerns.
When does South Africa’s removal from Agoa take effect?
The termination of South Africa’s eligibility under the African Growth and Opportunity Act is scheduled to take effect on 1 January 2027, giving Pretoria until early January to respond to the 60-day notice period.
How much did South African Agoa exports total in recent years?
Agoa exports were valued at about $4-billion in 2024 before dropping to about $1.7-billion in 2025, which constituted approximately 10% of South African exports to the United States.
How will South African trade and diplomatic missions adjust their strategy in Washington following the congressional turnover?
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