The Climate Impact Lab projects that South Africa could see approximately 1,200 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, driven by the current El Niño event, which the World Meteorological Organization describes as the strongest since comparable records began four decades ago. The estimate, with a margin of ±90 deaths, highlights the growing threat of extreme heat as global temperatures rise.
South Africa Faces 1,200 Additional Heat-Related Deaths Amid Record El Niño
Global Heat Deaths Could Reach 451,000
The Climate Impact Lab’s report, 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, warns that 451,000 additional deaths worldwide could occur during the first nine months of the El Niño, from June 2026 to February 2027. This projection includes 239,000 deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with a ±11,000 uncertainty range. The report highlights that global land temperatures are expected to rise 1.2°C above normal, leading to 44% more extremely hot days than usual.
Africa’s Sahel Region at Risk
The Sahel region of Africa is projected to bear the brunt of the heat crisis, with 66,800 additional deaths expected between September 2026 and February 2027. South Africa’s figure places it among the countries expected to experience additional heat-related mortality during the September-to-February period.
El Niño’s Broader Climate Impacts
Beyond heat, the El Niño is expected to exacerbate droughts, wildfires, and flooding due to shifting rainfall patterns. The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that the weather pattern could create favorable conditions for cholera outbreaks and disease-carrying mosquitoes, increasing risks of malaria, chikungunya, and dengue fever. “The most severe impacts will be experienced when climate shocks intersect with weak health systems, limited access to healthcare, food insecurity, displacement and humanitarian crisis,” said Teresa Zakaria, WHO’s Unit Head for Risk Reduction, Humanitarian Operations and Climate Change.
Adaptation Measures Could Save Lives
The Climate Impact Lab’s Adaptation Inventory identifies early-warning systems, cooling centers, and protections for outdoor workers as critical interventions. These measures, backed by peer-reviewed research, could prevent tens of thousands of deaths. For example, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture urged farmers to adopt climate-smart agriculture, including conservation techniques to preserve soil moisture and reduce erosion.
August recorded as the hottest month ever
The EU’s climate monitor reported August was the hottest single month ever recorded, with ocean temperatures also reaching unprecedented highs. This aligns with the Climate Impact Lab’s assertion that current El Niño conditions mirror climate change projections for 20 years from now.
Pro Tips for Communities
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What is El Niño and why is the Global South vulnerable?
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which disrupt global weather patterns.
Why is the Global South most vulnerable?
Many Global South nations lack the resources to adapt to extreme heat, compounded by existing challenges like poverty, limited healthcare, and climate-sensitive economies.
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