The White House last month cautioned staff against placing bets on prediction markets tied to the Iran war, a Trump administration official confirmed Friday.
Concerns Over Insider Trading
This warning followed concerns about potentially illicit trading activity on platforms like Polymarket, specifically around events related to the Iran war and the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this year. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the March 24 email sent to White House staff.
The email was sent one day after President Donald Trump announced a pause in hostilities via a post on Truth Social. In the 15 minutes preceding that announcement, over $500 million in crude oil futures trades occurred, according to Reuters.
On Tuesday, a similar pattern emerged, with traders placing approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices in the hours before President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran – a move that caused oil prices to drop roughly 15 percent, according to a letter from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Calls for Investigation
Representative Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, sent a letter Wednesday to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission requesting a federal insider trading probe. Torres questioned how a trader could make a substantial bet just minutes before a market-moving announcement without inside information, stating that any other explanation would be statistically impossible.
The White House, when asked for comment, affirmed that all federal employees are prohibited from trading on inside information. White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated that any suggestion of Administration officials engaging in such activity without evidence is “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Polymarket and Kalshi have both recently announced they are tightening rules around insider trading on their platforms.
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the White House warning?
The warning was prompted by increasing concern about insider trading on prediction markets, specifically related to trades made before announcements regarding the Iran war and the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
What action are lawmakers taking?
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse have requested an investigation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Representative Ritchie Torres has requested a federal insider trading probe from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
What was the amount of trading activity before President Trump’s announcements?
More than $500 million in crude oil futures trades were made in the 15 minutes before President Trump announced a pause in hostilities, and approximately $950 million was bet on falling oil prices before the announcement of a two-week ceasefire.
As regulators examine these events, what role will prediction markets play in the future of financial trading?
